Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Bitcoin dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -27.4% to -22.0% | 2 |
| -22.0% to -16.6% | 3 |
| -16.6% to -11.2% | 3 |
| -11.2% to -5.8% | 2 |
| -5.8% to -0.4% | 4 |
| -0.4% to +5.0% | 5 |
| +5.0% to +10.4% | 7 |
| +10.4% to +15.8% | 0 |
| +15.8% to +21.2% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
30 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.21 | $78283.06 | -2.21% | -1.30% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.59 | $63537.56 | -0.20% | -0.87% | +1.81% | +23.57% | +20.49% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -1.48 | $64092.65 | +0.35% | -0.61% | -1.99% | +1.23% | +21.25% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -2.30 | $62278.96 | +4.34% | +2.43% | +4.67% | +2.28% | +1.81% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -2.07 | $59726.74 | +0.49% | -0.39% | +2.95% | +5.80% | +7.69% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -2.40 | $62897.24 | +0.94% | +0.57% | -5.04% | -2.24% | +3.02% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | -0.31 | $61480.14 | +3.38% | +4.76% | +4.82% | -0.80% | +4.28% | +27.60% |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-05-29 | -0.93 | $73651.64 | -0.20% | -0.07% | -13.36% | -13.71% | -18.60% | +7.29% |
| 2026-05-18 | -0.90 | $77428.52 | -0.61% | +0.05% | -0.53% | -4.95% | -15.25% | -18.59% |
| 2026-05-14 | -1.48 | $79288.84 | +2.23% | -1.46% | -2.29% | -6.24% | -19.87% | -19.87% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.72 | $75784.96 | +0.68% | +3.82% | +7.46% | +4.62% | -3.01% | -15.71% |
| 2026-04-04 | -0.10 | $66822.55 | +0.38% | +2.77% | +9.13% | +15.42% | +17.49% | -7.98% |
| 2026-03-20 | -1.80 | $69936.20 | +0.84% | -2.86% | -1.73% | -4.36% | +8.26% | -7.85% |
| 2026-03-08 | -1.18 | $67339.67 | -1.93% | +3.73% | +5.66% | +1.61% | +1.98% | -9.47% |
| 2026-02-25 | -1.03 | $64073.55 | +5.89% | +2.84% | +6.58% | +9.01% | +7.26% | +20.58% |
| 2026-02-12 | -2.54 | $67090.58 | -1.24% | +4.04% | -0.99% | +1.13% | +5.59% | +19.96% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $78647.03 | -2.23% | -3.84% | -11.95% | -11.25% | -12.50% | -0.56% |
| 2026-01-18 | -0.75 | $94802.88 | -1.54% | -6.74% | -5.96% | -17.04% | -27.37% | -18.65% |
| 2026-01-09 | -0.28 | $91027.67 | -0.52% | -0.19% | +5.02% | -1.70% | -23.93% | -22.39% |
| 2025-12-15 | -2.29 | $88184.41 | -2.01% | -2.25% | +0.55% | -0.36% | +8.22% | -19.32% |
| 2025-12-07 | -0.04 | $89227.45 | +1.31% | +3.88% | +1.15% | -0.99% | +5.21% | -23.63% |
| 2025-12-01 | -0.52 | $90359.87 | -4.49% | +3.40% | +0.04% | -2.41% | -2.21% | -25.83% |
| 2025-11-22 | -1.77 | $85087.95 | -0.48% | +3.72% | +6.84% | +4.91% | +4.21% | -21.29% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-04-04: +9.13%
- 2026-04-30: +7.46%
- 2025-11-22: +6.84%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-29: -13.36%
- 2025-11-14: -12.93%
- 2026-02-01: -11.95%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.