Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Bitcoin has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.79% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | -1.99% | -1.88% | 50.0% | 0.93% | -4.48% |
| 3 days | 4 | -1.25% | -0.08% | 25.0% | 5.54% | -3.33% |
| 7 days | 4 | -0.79% | -0.35% | 25.0% | 4.85% | -4.66% |
| 14 days | 4 | -7.25% | -7.73% | 0.0% | -1.40% | -15.01% |
| 30 days | 4 | -20.22% | -17.45% | 0.0% | -1.13% | -28.24% |
| 90 days | 4 | -17.67% | -8.61% | 25.0% | 21.14% | -20.23% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -0.37 | $63810.66 | -4.47% | -0.84% | -0.40% | -1.43% | -1.13% | +21.14% |
| 2026-05-20 | -0.26 | $76758.73 | +0.93% | -1.67% | -1.18% | -13.07% | -18.06% | -15.98% |
| 2026-01-20 | -0.83 | $92566.01 | -4.48% | -3.33% | -4.66% | -15.01% | -28.24% | -20.23% |
| 2026-01-11 | -0.15 | $90420.30 | +0.48% | +5.54% | +4.85% | -1.40% | -22.39% | -19.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-11: +4.85%
- 2026-06-05: -0.40%
- 2026-05-20: -1.18%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-20: -4.66%
- 2026-05-20: -1.18%
- 2026-06-05: -0.40%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.