Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Bitcoin has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.47% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -2.6% to -1.7% | 2 |
| -1.7% to -0.8% | 2 |
| -0.8% to +0.1% | 7 |
| +0.1% to +1.0% | 3 |
| +1.0% to +1.8% | 3 |
| +1.8% to +2.7% | 2 |
| +2.7% to +3.6% | 0 |
| +3.6% to +4.5% | 0 |
| +4.5% to +5.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.14% | 0.25% | 45.0% | 5.38% | -2.59% |
| 3 days | 20 | 0.07% | 0.17% | 55.0% | 11.24% | -7.44% |
| 7 days | 20 | 0.47% | 0.82% | 50.0% | 14.04% | -7.35% |
| 14 days | 19 | -0.56% | 0.14% | 42.1% | 11.55% | -6.80% |
| 30 days | 18 | -1.74% | -1.74% | 44.4% | 11.67% | -30.57% |
| 90 days | 17 | -10.69% | -5.63% | 35.3% | 26.15% | -29.21% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $81264.70 | -1.96% | -1.15% | -5.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $69291.01 | +5.38% | +11.24% | +14.04% | +11.55% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $64983.52 | -0.41% | -1.66% | +2.37% | -1.70% | -2.39% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $63555.66 | -0.04% | +3.39% | -1.04% | -6.02% | +0.37% | +23.17% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $63273.54 | -0.32% | -2.83% | +3.85% | -0.03% | +0.10% | +26.15% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $74481.64 | -0.25% | +0.85% | +1.85% | +3.87% | +6.45% | -14.41% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $71661.76 | -1.42% | +1.76% | +3.68% | +6.51% | +11.67% | -10.69% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $70987.25 | -0.65% | -3.18% | -6.05% | -3.26% | +10.22% | -10.89% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $68430.61 | +2.07% | +2.90% | +9.13% | +3.74% | +3.24% | -7.54% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $72752.30 | -2.59% | -7.44% | -3.74% | -2.11% | -8.15% | -8.28% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $68815.94 | -0.77% | +2.98% | -0.56% | +8.52% | -1.24% | +6.95% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $67850.11 | -0.52% | -1.23% | +7.23% | +3.21% | -2.24% | +11.79% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $68837.58 | +1.40% | +0.03% | -1.21% | -4.28% | +5.95% | +17.75% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $70272.52 | -1.46% | -0.14% | -2.04% | -3.23% | -6.02% | +13.88% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $95429.16 | +1.54% | +0.10% | -7.35% | -6.59% | -30.57% | -21.95% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $88091.70 | +0.29% | +0.45% | -0.90% | +2.14% | +5.96% | -20.61% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $91320.08 | +2.31% | -2.25% | +1.50% | -3.94% | -2.80% | -24.64% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $90515.94 | +0.89% | +0.35% | +3.22% | +1.62% | -3.55% | -29.21% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $115060.88 | +0.14% | -3.66% | -5.57% | -0.56% | -10.38% | -21.42% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $118930.96 | +1.33% | +2.94% | +3.71% | -6.80% | -7.87% | -25.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +14.04%
- 2026-03-10: +9.13%
- 2026-02-26: +7.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -7.35%
- 2026-03-24: -6.05%
- 2026-09-04: -5.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.