Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin
20 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $118930.9551 | $123342.9847 | +3.71% | 103.71 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $115060.8842 | $108655.5053 | -5.57% | 97.94 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $90515.9436 | $93428.5945 | +3.22% | 101.09 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $88091.6957 | $87303.0443 | -0.90% | 100.18 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $95429.1573 | $88416.8869 | -7.35% | 92.82 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $70272.5222 | $68837.5811 | -2.04% | 90.93 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $68837.5811 | $68002.9401 | -1.21% | 89.82 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $67850.1052 | $72752.3016 | +7.23% | 96.31 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $72752.3016 | $70028.9599 | -3.74% | 92.71 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $70987.2519 | $66691.2715 | -6.05% | 87.10 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $71661.7637 | $74297.3476 | +3.68% | 90.30 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $63273.5374 | $65709.3109 | +3.85% | 93.78 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $64983.5191 | $66520.9816 | +2.37% | 96.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $69291.0104 | $79018.0341 | +14.04% | 109.47 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $81264.7015 | $76554.9866 | -5.80% | 103.13 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.