Transparent historical data

What Happens to Bitcoin After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?

Bitcoin has recorded 1 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 5.54% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.

Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →

Outcome summary

Horizon14 days

Sample1

Median return+6.69%

Average return+6.69%

Positive outcomes100.0%

Best / worst+6.69% / +6.69%

Distribution of 14-day outcomes

Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.

All forward horizons

Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.

Horizon	Sample	Median	Average	Positive	Best	Worst
1 days	1	11.94%	11.94%	100.0%	11.94%	11.94%
3 days	1	12.14%	12.14%	100.0%	12.14%	12.14%
7 days	1	5.54%	5.54%	100.0%	5.54%	5.54%
14 days	1	6.69%	6.69%	100.0%	6.69%	6.69%
30 days	1	7.27%	7.27%	100.0%	7.27%	7.27%
90 days	1	29.72%	29.72%	100.0%	29.72%	29.72%

Historical occurrences

1 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.

Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.

Date	Trigger	Price	1d	3d	7d	14d	30d	90d
2026-02-06	-25.82	$62778.22	+11.94%	+12.14%	+5.54%	+6.69%	+7.27%	+29.72%

Best 7-day cases

2026-02-06: +5.54%

Worst 7-day cases

2026-02-06: +5.54%

How this study works

An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.

Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.

Read the full methodology · Review data sources