Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Bitcoin dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.4% to -5.1% | 1 |
| -5.1% to -3.8% | 3 |
| -3.8% to -2.5% | 1 |
| -2.5% to -1.2% | 5 |
| -1.2% to +0.1% | 4 |
| +0.1% to +1.4% | 2 |
| +1.4% to +2.8% | 2 |
| +2.8% to +4.1% | 0 |
| +4.1% to +5.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
19 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 1.77 | $81264.70 | -1.96% | -1.15% | -5.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.61 | $77820.76 | +0.52% | +0.94% | +2.38% | -0.79% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 2.37 | $78973.89 | -0.59% | +1.64% | -0.53% | +0.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.03 | $69291.01 | +5.38% | +11.24% | +14.04% | +11.55% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.98 | $63810.66 | -4.47% | -0.84% | -0.40% | -1.43% | -1.13% | +21.14% |
| 2026-06-02 | 1.72 | $71320.29 | -6.44% | -10.53% | -11.57% | -7.05% | -15.92% | +8.89% |
| 2026-04-18 | 1.57 | $77125.73 | -1.83% | -1.64% | +0.42% | +1.40% | +0.39% | -17.29% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.69 | $71661.76 | -1.42% | +1.76% | +3.68% | +6.51% | +11.67% | -10.69% |
| 2026-03-05 | 1.75 | $72752.30 | -2.59% | -7.44% | -3.74% | -2.11% | -8.15% | -8.28% |
| 2026-02-03 | 1.72 | $78670.59 | -3.87% | -20.20% | -10.80% | -12.47% | -7.52% | -0.20% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.64 | $84630.42 | -0.64% | -9.14% | -25.82% | -21.71% | -20.81% | -10.45% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.52 | $95429.16 | +1.54% | +0.10% | -7.35% | -6.59% | -30.57% | -21.95% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.99 | $85087.95 | -0.48% | +3.72% | +6.84% | +4.91% | +4.21% | -21.29% |
| 2025-11-18 | 1.50 | $92100.36 | +0.87% | -5.95% | -4.17% | -6.29% | -6.41% | -25.32% |
| 2025-11-14 | 1.60 | $99480.31 | -4.73% | -5.32% | -12.93% | -8.20% | -9.28% | -32.56% |
| 2025-11-05 | 1.63 | $101480.77 | +2.36% | +1.69% | +1.61% | -8.45% | -9.22% | -22.48% |
| 2025-10-22 | 1.53 | $108301.75 | -0.66% | +2.52% | +4.24% | -6.30% | -20.02% | -14.53% |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.57 | $113066.35 | -1.97% | -5.82% | -4.21% | -0.15% | -12.02% | -19.34% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.82 | $113043.68 | -2.11% | +1.93% | -5.80% | -1.78% | -7.46% | -19.48% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +14.04%
- 2025-11-22: +6.84%
- 2025-10-22: +4.24%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.82%
- 2025-11-14: -12.93%
- 2026-06-02: -11.57%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.