Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 1.5x Volume Spike
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 1.5x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin
19 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin; 13 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $113043.6759 | $106483.8914 | -5.80% | 94.20 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $108301.7546 | $112893.8520 | +4.24% | 98.19 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-12 | $101480.7666 | $103112.2101 | +1.61% | 99.77 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $99480.3071 | $86618.4716 | -12.93% | 86.87 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $85087.9526 | $90904.8677 | +6.84% | 92.81 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $95429.1573 | $88416.8869 | -7.35% | 85.99 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $84630.4207 | $62778.2176 | -25.82% | 63.79 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $72752.3016 | $70028.9599 | -3.74% | 61.40 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $71661.7637 | $74297.3476 | +3.68% | 63.66 |
| 2026-04-18 | 2026-04-25 | $77125.7336 | $77447.6176 | +0.42% | 63.92 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $71320.2931 | $63069.1478 | -11.57% | 56.53 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $69291.0104 | $79018.0341 | +14.04% | 64.46 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $77820.7643 | $79671.2577 | +2.38% | 66.00 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.