Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
12 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $513.3722 | $480.2803 | -6.45% | 93.55 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $583.8379 | $580.2365 | -0.62% | 92.98 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $558.5992 | $590.4652 | +5.70% | 98.28 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $589.4735 | $593.2595 | +0.64% | 98.91 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $584.2144 | $590.0450 | +1.00% | 99.90 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $555.0155 | $458.4375 | -17.40% | 82.52 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $459.5624 | $465.2478 | +1.24% | 83.54 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $268.7844 | $203.4155 | -24.32% | 63.22 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $239.4349 | $236.6058 | -1.18% | 62.47 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology