Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.15% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -13.9% to -11.4% | 1 |
| -11.4% to -8.9% | 0 |
| -8.9% to -6.4% | 0 |
| -6.4% to -3.9% | 2 |
| -3.9% to -1.4% | 0 |
| -1.4% to +1.2% | 1 |
| +1.2% to +3.7% | 0 |
| +3.7% to +6.2% | 0 |
| +6.2% to +8.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -0.43% | 0.93% | 42.9% | 8.33% | -3.30% |
| 3 days | 7 | 2.46% | 4.38% | 71.4% | 29.75% | -6.71% |
| 7 days | 7 | 1.15% | 3.14% | 57.1% | 26.01% | -12.77% |
| 14 days | 6 | 1.33% | 2.61% | 66.7% | 14.65% | -7.88% |
| 30 days | 5 | -4.42% | -3.20% | 20.0% | 8.70% | -13.94% |
| 90 days | 5 | -30.47% | -29.93% | 0.0% | -13.44% | -45.26% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $256.60 | -3.30% | +1.61% | -12.77% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $213.28 | +4.55% | +29.75% | +26.01% | +14.65% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $438.72 | -0.43% | +3.72% | +1.15% | +2.59% | -1.06% | -45.26% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $468.46 | -0.92% | -2.78% | -2.78% | -1.84% | -5.29% | -42.62% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $494.42 | -2.74% | -6.71% | -5.25% | -7.88% | -4.42% | -30.47% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $520.51 | +1.05% | +2.46% | +8.35% | +8.06% | -13.94% | -13.44% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $545.77 | +8.33% | +2.57% | +7.25% | +0.06% | +8.70% | -17.87% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +26.01%
- 2026-02-07: +8.35%
- 2025-12-03: +7.25%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -12.77%
- 2026-02-26: -5.25%
- 2026-03-05: -2.78%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.