Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.51% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.4% to -15.7% | 1 |
| -15.7% to -11.0% | 0 |
| -11.0% to -6.3% | 1 |
| -6.3% to -1.5% | 1 |
| -1.5% to +3.2% | 0 |
| +3.2% to +7.9% | 0 |
| +7.9% to +12.6% | 1 |
| +12.6% to +17.3% | 0 |
| +17.3% to +22.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 0.77% | 2.30% | 50.0% | 13.54% | -9.53% |
| 3 days | 6 | 5.00% | 1.42% | 66.7% | 15.07% | -21.94% |
| 7 days | 6 | -2.51% | -4.30% | 50.0% | 10.84% | -24.32% |
| 14 days | 6 | 4.30% | 3.47% | 50.0% | 22.05% | -20.41% |
| 30 days | 6 | -6.95% | -4.38% | 16.7% | 23.27% | -18.12% |
| 90 days | 6 | -3.24% | 0.35% | 50.0% | 22.90% | -19.31% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $268.78 | -9.53% | -21.94% | -24.32% | -20.41% | -18.12% | -8.10% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $458.44 | +13.54% | +15.07% | +10.08% | +22.05% | -0.66% | +1.63% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $508.03 | +1.81% | +3.64% | +3.53% | +10.75% | -11.77% | -11.26% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $555.02 | -0.27% | -6.81% | -17.40% | -9.07% | -16.89% | -19.31% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $480.45 | +11.06% | +12.22% | +10.84% | +19.65% | +23.27% | +16.22% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $514.13 | -2.83% | +6.36% | -8.55% | -2.16% | -2.12% | +22.90% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +10.84%
- 2026-02-06: +10.08%
- 2026-02-01: +3.53%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -24.32%
- 2026-01-30: -17.40%
- 2025-10-11: -8.55%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.