Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.36% and 63.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.4% to -6.2% | 2 |
| -6.2% to -4.1% | 1 |
| -4.1% to -1.9% | 1 |
| -1.9% to +0.3% | 3 |
| +0.3% to +2.4% | 6 |
| +2.4% to +4.6% | 5 |
| +4.6% to +6.7% | 0 |
| +6.7% to +8.9% | 0 |
| +8.9% to +11.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 1.57% | 0.81% | 63.2% | 11.06% | -8.39% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.68% | 0.31% | 52.6% | 12.22% | -16.37% |
| 7 days | 19 | 2.36% | -0.75% | 63.2% | 11.10% | -28.64% |
| 14 days | 19 | -1.03% | 0.18% | 47.4% | 19.65% | -23.49% |
| 30 days | 18 | -2.29% | 0.38% | 38.9% | 23.27% | -28.44% |
| 90 days | 18 | -16.34% | -15.47% | 33.3% | 22.90% | -59.09% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $216.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $247.98 | -0.31% | -0.39% | +0.06% | -8.01% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $209.81 | +3.57% | -0.22% | -3.69% | -5.49% | +16.30% | +22.30% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $293.39 | -8.39% | -16.37% | -28.64% | -23.49% | -28.44% | -17.04% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $422.37 | +3.87% | +4.45% | +3.31% | +7.77% | +4.08% | -42.24% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $465.25 | +1.57% | -2.83% | -4.28% | -4.69% | -2.51% | -59.09% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $459.84 | -0.06% | +0.68% | +3.83% | -1.03% | -1.32% | -53.48% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $453.56 | +0.41% | -1.02% | +1.87% | +4.53% | -4.89% | -45.90% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $542.56 | -8.13% | -8.87% | -17.84% | -17.43% | -11.46% | -34.43% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $526.51 | +1.10% | -1.14% | -0.44% | +7.08% | -11.84% | -15.64% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $508.03 | +1.81% | +3.64% | +3.53% | +10.75% | -11.77% | -11.26% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $555.02 | -0.27% | -6.81% | -17.40% | -9.07% | -16.89% | -19.31% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $573.59 | +1.85% | +3.68% | +4.46% | -8.21% | -2.46% | -22.64% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $559.82 | +4.29% | +3.52% | +3.85% | +11.58% | +14.55% | -17.09% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $522.78 | +4.40% | +9.96% | +10.85% | +2.52% | +14.65% | -14.73% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $480.45 | +11.06% | +12.22% | +10.84% | +19.65% | +23.27% | +16.22% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $480.28 | +4.47% | +2.08% | +11.10% | +14.37% | +16.31% | +5.08% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $505.31 | -4.84% | -6.49% | +2.36% | -2.98% | +17.00% | +2.36% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $514.13 | -2.83% | +6.36% | -8.55% | -2.16% | -2.12% | +22.90% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $538.33 | +1.80% | +3.37% | +10.45% | +7.77% | -5.53% | +5.56% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: +11.10%
- 2025-12-02: +10.85%
- 2025-11-21: +10.84%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -28.64%
- 2026-02-23: -17.84%
- 2026-01-30: -17.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.