Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 35 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.94% and 37.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -59.1% to -49.6% | 6 |
| -49.6% to -40.0% | 4 |
| -40.0% to -30.5% | 2 |
| -30.5% to -21.0% | 4 |
| -21.0% to -11.4% | 3 |
| -11.4% to -1.9% | 2 |
| -1.9% to +7.6% | 4 |
| +7.6% to +17.1% | 1 |
| +17.1% to +26.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 37 | -0.37% | -0.94% | 43.2% | 8.39% | -14.49% |
| 3 days | 37 | -0.92% | -0.58% | 37.8% | 14.61% | -11.12% |
| 7 days | 35 | -1.94% | -1.62% | 37.1% | 27.99% | -17.84% |
| 14 days | 35 | 0.52% | -0.88% | 54.3% | 26.49% | -31.05% |
| 30 days | 35 | -0.06% | -2.85% | 48.6% | 29.16% | -56.13% |
| 90 days | 28 | -23.00% | -24.19% | 17.9% | 26.66% | -59.09% |
Historical occurrences
37 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | -0.02 | $226.36 | -2.38% | -4.25% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -0.02 | $251.87 | -11.13% | -10.13% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | -0.02 | $212.48 | -2.83% | -4.22% | +0.37% | +26.49% | +7.36% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.02 | $216.79 | -3.22% | -1.98% | -1.94% | -4.76% | +14.03% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | -0.01 | $209.66 | +3.43% | +2.13% | -0.83% | +3.03% | +29.16% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -0.01 | $236.27 | +0.14% | -6.13% | -6.96% | -10.42% | -10.07% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | -0.01 | $243.94 | -1.56% | -3.01% | -9.78% | -14.05% | -12.64% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | -0.02 | $209.94 | +4.83% | +12.44% | +12.03% | +6.25% | -0.06% | — |
| 2026-06-29 | -0.01 | $190.66 | +5.33% | +10.11% | +27.99% | +25.95% | +12.31% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.02 | $224.46 | -4.69% | -11.12% | -12.11% | -10.53% | -0.62% | -1.56% |
| 2026-06-05 | -0.02 | $245.35 | -14.49% | -6.20% | -16.39% | -18.69% | -3.79% | -0.34% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.01 | $434.89 | -1.84% | -6.69% | -12.53% | -31.05% | -52.03% | -51.14% |
| 2026-05-11 | -0.02 | $463.73 | -2.90% | -6.40% | -12.49% | -25.12% | -56.13% | -53.42% |
| 2026-05-09 | -0.01 | $450.60 | -0.10% | -0.07% | -5.27% | -19.85% | -48.92% | -52.82% |
| 2026-04-12 | -0.02 | $438.35 | -3.65% | -0.35% | +1.33% | +3.47% | +2.72% | -44.10% |
| 2026-04-08 | -0.01 | $446.15 | -1.01% | -0.50% | -2.09% | +0.51% | +0.99% | -45.80% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.01 | $441.87 | -2.38% | +0.97% | -0.80% | +0.52% | +0.52% | -48.12% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.01 | $445.34 | -0.37% | -3.14% | -0.42% | +2.18% | +0.16% | -52.86% |
| 2026-03-30 | -0.01 | $452.09 | +1.75% | +0.66% | -4.58% | -6.57% | +0.41% | -56.81% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $465.25 | +1.57% | -2.83% | -4.28% | -4.69% | -2.51% | -59.09% |
| 2026-03-10 | -0.02 | $448.91 | +0.22% | +2.37% | +6.73% | +7.07% | -1.62% | -48.73% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.02 | $542.56 | -8.13% | -8.87% | -17.84% | -17.43% | -11.46% | -34.43% |
| 2026-02-01 | -0.03 | $508.03 | +1.81% | +3.64% | +3.53% | +10.75% | -11.77% | -11.26% |
| 2026-01-19 | -0.01 | $587.95 | -0.79% | -0.64% | -2.74% | -12.03% | -4.11% | -24.45% |
| 2026-01-11 | -0.02 | $641.85 | +0.89% | -3.98% | -7.47% | -7.62% | -16.91% | -30.83% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-29: +27.99%
- 2026-07-02: +12.03%
- 2025-11-20: +11.96%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-23: -17.84%
- 2026-06-05: -16.39%
- 2026-05-15: -12.53%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.