Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 17 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.75% and 29.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.0% to -7.5% | 1 |
| -7.5% to -6.0% | 1 |
| -6.0% to -4.4% | 2 |
| -4.4% to -2.9% | 2 |
| -2.9% to -1.3% | 3 |
| -1.3% to +0.2% | 3 |
| +0.2% to +1.7% | 3 |
| +1.7% to +3.3% | 0 |
| +3.3% to +4.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 17 | -1.51% | -1.75% | 29.4% | 4.83% | -9.04% |
| 3 days | 17 | -0.41% | -0.76% | 47.1% | 12.44% | -15.53% |
| 7 days | 17 | -2.75% | -1.63% | 29.4% | 20.42% | -13.93% |
| 14 days | 17 | -6.00% | -3.29% | 41.2% | 17.66% | -17.57% |
| 30 days | 16 | -0.34% | -0.59% | 43.8% | 18.91% | -17.53% |
| 90 days | 14 | -0.60% | -4.18% | 50.0% | 22.77% | -32.25% |
Historical occurrences
17 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 29.21 | $288.11 | -3.95% | -6.01% | -13.93% | -13.88% | — | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 5.13 | $209.94 | +4.83% | +12.44% | +12.03% | +6.25% | -0.06% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 5.33 | $200.81 | -0.56% | +9.59% | +20.42% | +17.66% | +5.16% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 6.60 | $224.46 | -4.69% | -11.12% | -12.11% | -10.53% | -0.62% | -1.56% |
| 2026-06-12 | 5.52 | $205.15 | -1.51% | +2.64% | -2.75% | -6.00% | +18.91% | +22.77% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.92 | $230.15 | -9.04% | -15.53% | -8.51% | -15.36% | +4.03% | +11.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 11.75 | $563.99 | -0.24% | +0.92% | -0.27% | -17.57% | -16.08% | -22.89% |
| 2026-02-07 | 13.54 | $520.51 | +1.05% | +2.46% | +8.35% | +8.06% | -13.94% | -13.44% |
| 2026-01-04 | 7.28 | $654.84 | -2.07% | -2.77% | -1.98% | -9.31% | -17.53% | -32.25% |
| 2025-12-20 | 10.46 | $624.66 | -5.18% | -5.61% | -4.97% | -2.28% | -5.88% | -26.43% |
| 2025-12-04 | 8.33 | $591.23 | -2.77% | -1.25% | -3.08% | -7.63% | +3.24% | -24.13% |
| 2025-11-22 | 11.06 | $533.60 | +4.32% | +2.88% | +2.94% | +4.91% | +10.66% | +4.85% |
| 2025-11-19 | 6.64 | $522.81 | -7.10% | +2.06% | +0.85% | +4.39% | +8.17% | +8.87% |
| 2025-11-08 | 8.65 | $513.37 | -3.60% | +0.76% | -6.45% | +3.94% | +16.55% | -10.70% |
| 2025-10-27 | 9.90 | $558.91 | -0.52% | -0.50% | -3.93% | -9.97% | -5.67% | +6.09% |
| 2025-10-13 | 8.39 | $541.50 | +0.99% | -3.49% | -12.70% | +3.22% | -6.68% | +18.53% |
| 2025-10-02 | 5.83 | $592.70 | +0.31% | -0.41% | -1.56% | -11.82% | -9.65% | +0.36% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-30: +20.42%
- 2026-07-02: +12.03%
- 2026-02-07: +8.35%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-08-22: -13.93%
- 2025-10-13: -12.70%
- 2026-06-16: -12.11%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.