Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
17 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 14 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $592.6974 | $583.4470 | -1.56% | 98.44 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $541.5032 | $472.7427 | -12.70% | 85.94 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | $558.9128 | $536.9693 | -3.93% | 82.57 |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $513.3722 | $480.2803 | -6.45% | 77.24 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-26 | $522.8133 | $527.2463 | +0.85% | 77.90 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-11 | $591.2305 | $573.0033 | -3.08% | 75.50 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $624.6620 | $593.5910 | -4.97% | 71.74 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2026-01-11 | $654.8411 | $641.8532 | -1.98% | 70.32 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $520.5123 | $563.9888 | +8.35% | 76.19 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $563.9888 | $562.4408 | -0.27% | 75.98 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $230.1538 | $210.5622 | -8.51% | 69.51 |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-23 | $224.4576 | $197.2654 | -12.11% | 61.09 |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-07 | $200.8131 | $241.8126 | +20.42% | 73.57 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-08-29 | $288.1096 | $247.9810 | -13.93% | 63.32 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology