Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.41% and 47.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -41.9% to -34.8% | 1 |
| -34.8% to -27.7% | 1 |
| -27.7% to -20.6% | 1 |
| -20.6% to -13.5% | 1 |
| -13.5% to -6.4% | 4 |
| -6.4% to +0.7% | 5 |
| +0.7% to +7.8% | 0 |
| +7.8% to +14.9% | 6 |
| +14.9% to +22.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 22 | -0.33% | 0.09% | 36.4% | 13.54% | -9.53% |
| 3 days | 22 | -0.31% | -0.09% | 45.5% | 15.07% | -21.94% |
| 7 days | 21 | -1.41% | -2.12% | 47.6% | 11.96% | -24.32% |
| 14 days | 21 | -5.33% | -2.70% | 38.1% | 22.05% | -41.91% |
| 30 days | 20 | -1.09% | -3.48% | 45.0% | 28.61% | -46.06% |
| 90 days | 18 | -9.24% | -7.27% | 44.4% | 25.63% | -56.81% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -11.13 | $223.84 | +1.91% | -1.28% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -8.03 | $247.98 | -0.31% | -0.39% | +0.06% | -8.01% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | -5.73 | $223.06 | -0.57% | -1.34% | -1.41% | -5.33% | -8.25% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -6.04 | $199.51 | -0.61% | -2.35% | -3.34% | +10.31% | +10.31% | — |
| 2026-06-09 | -9.04 | $209.35 | -2.83% | -2.00% | +7.22% | -5.77% | +12.35% | +24.55% |
| 2026-06-06 | -14.49 | $209.81 | +3.57% | -0.22% | -3.69% | -5.49% | +16.30% | +22.30% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.39 | $268.78 | -9.53% | -21.94% | -24.32% | -20.41% | -18.12% | -8.10% |
| 2026-05-29 | -10.46 | $299.86 | +0.77% | +0.91% | -18.18% | -31.58% | -34.88% | -10.37% |
| 2026-05-23 | -5.06 | $361.17 | -1.50% | -2.55% | -16.34% | -41.91% | -46.06% | -38.26% |
| 2026-05-19 | -6.76 | $378.36 | -2.15% | +0.54% | -6.97% | -22.46% | -43.88% | -46.13% |
| 2026-03-30 | -5.96 | $452.09 | +1.75% | +0.66% | -4.58% | -6.57% | +0.41% | -56.81% |
| 2026-02-24 | -8.13 | $498.47 | -2.46% | -3.53% | -10.08% | -9.94% | -4.22% | -30.34% |
| 2026-02-06 | -13.87 | $458.44 | +13.54% | +15.07% | +10.08% | +22.05% | -0.66% | +1.63% |
| 2026-02-01 | -8.22 | $508.03 | +1.81% | +3.64% | +3.53% | +10.75% | -11.77% | -11.26% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.94 | $555.02 | -0.27% | -6.81% | -17.40% | -9.07% | -16.89% | -19.31% |
| 2025-12-21 | -5.18 | $592.28 | -0.31% | -3.38% | +5.19% | +10.56% | -1.52% | -19.96% |
| 2025-11-30 | -5.03 | $521.65 | +3.83% | +4.62% | +11.92% | +11.23% | +14.74% | -10.88% |
| 2025-11-20 | -7.10 | $485.70 | -1.08% | +14.61% | +11.96% | +21.73% | +28.61% | +16.07% |
| 2025-11-15 | -5.56 | $480.28 | +4.47% | +2.08% | +11.10% | +14.37% | +16.31% | +5.08% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.90 | $505.31 | -4.84% | -6.49% | +2.36% | -2.98% | +17.00% | +2.36% |
| 2025-10-18 | -6.74 | $470.16 | -0.35% | +1.87% | +6.99% | +13.90% | +2.73% | +25.63% |
| 2025-10-11 | -11.38 | $514.13 | -2.83% | +6.36% | -8.55% | -2.16% | -2.12% | +22.90% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-20: +11.96%
- 2025-11-30: +11.92%
- 2025-11-15: +11.10%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -24.32%
- 2026-05-29: -18.18%
- 2026-01-30: -17.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.