Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 41 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.25% and 41.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -57.9% to -49.0% | 4 |
| -49.0% to -40.0% | 2 |
| -40.0% to -31.0% | 1 |
| -31.0% to -22.1% | 4 |
| -22.1% to -13.1% | 6 |
| -13.1% to -4.1% | 4 |
| -4.1% to +4.8% | 3 |
| +4.8% to +13.8% | 5 |
| +13.8% to +22.8% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 41 | -0.45% | -0.14% | 39.0% | 10.46% | -7.10% |
| 3 days | 41 | 0.26% | 0.17% | 51.2% | 29.75% | -15.12% |
| 7 days | 41 | -1.25% | -0.35% | 41.5% | 26.01% | -12.77% |
| 14 days | 39 | 0.06% | -2.06% | 51.3% | 17.66% | -25.12% |
| 30 days | 38 | -0.84% | -2.98% | 44.7% | 22.60% | -56.13% |
| 90 days | 33 | -13.44% | -14.02% | 30.3% | 22.77% | -57.92% |
Historical occurrences
41 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 3.29 | $256.29 | +1.74% | +0.79% | -11.68% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 4.94 | $256.60 | -3.30% | +1.61% | -12.77% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 4.80 | $213.28 | +4.55% | +29.75% | +26.01% | +14.65% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 3.43 | $216.87 | -2.40% | -2.63% | -2.02% | -1.07% | +22.60% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 3.09 | $245.05 | -0.45% | -3.58% | -10.31% | -14.01% | -12.45% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 3.37 | $244.02 | -0.90% | -3.61% | -1.59% | -11.85% | -12.63% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 5.13 | $209.94 | +4.83% | +12.44% | +12.03% | +6.25% | -0.06% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 5.33 | $200.81 | -0.56% | +9.59% | +20.42% | +17.66% | +5.16% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 6.60 | $224.46 | -4.69% | -11.12% | -12.11% | -10.53% | -0.62% | -1.56% |
| 2026-06-14 | 3.24 | $208.60 | +0.94% | +2.55% | -4.18% | -6.39% | +13.26% | +9.36% |
| 2026-06-12 | 5.52 | $205.15 | -1.51% | +2.64% | -2.75% | -6.00% | +18.91% | +22.77% |
| 2026-06-07 | 3.57 | $217.30 | +5.92% | -6.39% | -4.00% | -8.01% | +11.28% | +14.19% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.02 | $463.73 | -2.90% | -6.40% | -12.49% | -25.12% | -56.13% | -53.42% |
| 2026-05-06 | 3.85 | $461.27 | +1.00% | -2.31% | -4.69% | -19.74% | -46.81% | -53.81% |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.14 | $455.04 | -0.28% | -4.11% | +1.26% | -2.87% | -8.58% | -50.98% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.87 | $438.72 | -0.43% | +3.72% | +1.15% | +2.59% | -1.06% | -45.26% |
| 2026-03-21 | 3.16 | $474.08 | -2.35% | +1.38% | -0.32% | -6.41% | -7.96% | -57.92% |
| 2026-03-05 | 4.43 | $468.46 | -0.92% | -2.78% | -2.78% | -1.84% | -5.29% | -42.62% |
| 2026-02-14 | 11.75 | $563.99 | -0.24% | +0.92% | -0.27% | -17.57% | -16.08% | -22.89% |
| 2026-02-07 | 13.54 | $520.51 | +1.05% | +2.46% | +8.35% | +8.06% | -13.94% | -13.44% |
| 2026-02-03 | 4.41 | $540.08 | -2.51% | -15.12% | -1.25% | +5.39% | -13.26% | -17.82% |
| 2026-01-28 | 3.71 | $599.17 | -1.52% | -7.62% | -12.13% | -12.51% | -19.74% | -24.88% |
| 2026-01-04 | 7.28 | $654.84 | -2.07% | -2.77% | -1.98% | -9.31% | -17.53% | -32.25% |
| 2025-12-28 | 4.95 | $622.99 | -0.24% | -4.52% | +5.11% | +3.03% | -7.26% | -24.15% |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.73 | $589.47 | +0.70% | +5.44% | +0.64% | +7.19% | +0.59% | -19.01% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +26.01%
- 2026-06-30: +20.42%
- 2026-07-02: +12.03%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -12.77%
- 2025-10-13: -12.70%
- 2026-05-11: -12.49%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.