Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
41 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 25 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (16 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-25 | $616.5735 | $556.5819 | -9.73% | 90.27 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $592.6974 | $583.4470 | -1.56% | 88.86 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $541.5032 | $472.7427 | -12.70% | 77.58 |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-11-01 | $503.0414 | $535.4962 | +6.45% | 82.58 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-11-09 | $554.2958 | $494.8843 | -10.72% | 73.73 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-11-23 | $501.7417 | $556.6681 | +10.95% | 81.80 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $543.8084 | $591.2305 | +8.72% | 88.94 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $583.8379 | $580.2365 | -0.62% | 88.39 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-26 | $565.5085 | $589.4735 | +4.24% | 92.13 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $589.4735 | $593.2595 | +0.64% | 92.72 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2026-01-11 | $654.8411 | $641.8532 | -1.98% | 90.89 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2026-02-04 | $599.1723 | $526.5142 | -12.13% | 79.86 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $520.5123 | $563.9888 | +8.35% | 86.54 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $563.9888 | $562.4408 | -0.27% | 86.30 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $468.4553 | $455.4472 | -2.78% | 83.90 |
| 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-28 | $474.0839 | $472.5507 | -0.32% | 83.63 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-21 | $438.7158 | $443.7470 | +1.15% | 84.59 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-13 | $461.2695 | $439.6200 | -4.69% | 80.62 |
| 2026-06-07 | 2026-06-14 | $217.2971 | $208.6045 | -4.00% | 77.39 |
| 2026-06-14 | 2026-06-21 | $208.6045 | $199.8886 | -4.18% | 74.16 |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-07 | $200.8131 | $241.8126 | +20.42% | 89.30 |
| 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-18 | $245.0526 | $219.7878 | -10.31% | 80.09 |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $216.8652 | $212.4906 | -2.02% | 78.48 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $213.2770 | $268.7601 | +26.01% | 98.90 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $256.5979 | $223.8355 | -12.77% | 86.27 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology