Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.41% and 46.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -56.8% to -46.8% | 3 |
| -46.8% to -36.9% | 3 |
| -36.9% to -26.9% | 4 |
| -26.9% to -16.9% | 7 |
| -16.9% to -7.0% | 5 |
| -7.0% to +3.0% | 4 |
| +3.0% to +12.9% | 9 |
| +12.9% to +22.9% | 5 |
| +22.9% to +32.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 50 | -0.17% | 0.34% | 48.0% | 13.54% | -8.39% |
| 3 days | 50 | 0.16% | -0.02% | 50.0% | 15.07% | -16.37% |
| 7 days | 49 | -1.41% | -1.77% | 46.9% | 11.96% | -28.64% |
| 14 days | 48 | -0.82% | -1.53% | 47.9% | 22.05% | -41.91% |
| 30 days | 46 | -0.57% | -1.87% | 47.8% | 30.64% | -51.77% |
| 90 days | 42 | -10.63% | -10.53% | 40.5% | 32.87% | -56.81% |
Historical occurrences
50 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -11.13 | $223.84 | +1.91% | -1.28% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -3.30 | $248.12 | +3.29% | +4.33% | -8.06% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -8.03 | $247.98 | -0.31% | -0.39% | +0.06% | -8.01% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -3.95 | $276.73 | -0.95% | -3.92% | -10.67% | -7.39% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | -3.22 | $209.80 | -0.89% | +1.56% | +2.31% | -2.45% | +16.01% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -3.68 | $211.84 | -0.53% | +2.37% | +2.34% | +0.35% | +30.64% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | -5.73 | $223.06 | -0.57% | -1.34% | -1.41% | -5.33% | -8.25% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -6.04 | $199.51 | -0.61% | -2.35% | -3.34% | +10.31% | +10.31% | — |
| 2026-06-17 | -4.69 | $213.93 | -0.75% | -7.31% | -9.11% | -6.66% | +3.67% | +4.39% |
| 2026-06-11 | -4.43 | $194.41 | +5.52% | +7.30% | +9.22% | -2.09% | +26.05% | +32.87% |
| 2026-06-09 | -9.04 | $209.35 | -2.83% | -2.00% | +7.22% | -5.77% | +12.35% | +24.55% |
| 2026-06-06 | -14.49 | $209.81 | +3.57% | -0.22% | -3.69% | -5.49% | +16.30% | +22.30% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.04 | $293.39 | -8.39% | -16.37% | -28.64% | -23.49% | -28.44% | -17.04% |
| 2026-05-29 | -10.46 | $299.86 | +0.77% | +0.91% | -18.18% | -31.58% | -34.88% | -10.37% |
| 2026-05-23 | -5.06 | $361.17 | -1.50% | -2.55% | -16.34% | -41.91% | -46.06% | -38.26% |
| 2026-05-19 | -6.76 | $378.36 | -2.15% | +0.54% | -6.97% | -22.46% | -43.88% | -46.13% |
| 2026-05-08 | -3.29 | $450.56 | +0.01% | +2.92% | -3.48% | -15.57% | -51.77% | -52.40% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.65 | $422.37 | +3.87% | +4.45% | +3.31% | +7.77% | +4.08% | -42.24% |
| 2026-03-30 | -5.96 | $452.09 | +1.75% | +0.66% | -4.58% | -6.57% | +0.41% | -56.81% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.15 | $459.84 | -0.06% | +0.68% | +3.83% | -1.03% | -1.32% | -53.48% |
| 2026-03-02 | -3.36 | $445.77 | +0.55% | +5.09% | +0.49% | +6.17% | +4.52% | -31.94% |
| 2026-02-28 | -3.33 | $464.87 | -0.78% | -3.58% | -2.43% | -0.61% | -2.75% | -35.50% |
| 2026-02-23 | -3.77 | $542.56 | -8.13% | -8.87% | -17.84% | -17.43% | -11.46% | -34.43% |
| 2026-02-06 | -13.87 | $458.44 | +13.54% | +15.07% | +10.08% | +22.05% | -0.66% | +1.63% |
| 2026-02-01 | -8.22 | $508.03 | +1.81% | +3.64% | +3.53% | +10.75% | -11.77% | -11.26% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-20: +11.96%
- 2025-11-30: +11.92%
- 2025-11-17: +11.62%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -28.64%
- 2026-05-29: -18.18%
- 2026-02-23: -17.84%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.