Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
50 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 28 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (22 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-27 | $600.8175 | $548.0226 | -8.79% | 91.21 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025-10-12 | $590.2635 | $499.5693 | -15.37% | 77.20 |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-24 | $504.1658 | $480.7075 | -4.65% | 73.61 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-10 | $536.9693 | $503.2144 | -6.29% | 68.98 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $480.2803 | $533.5993 | +11.10% | 76.64 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-01 | $539.1411 | $541.6478 | +0.46% | 76.99 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $522.7769 | $579.5225 | +10.85% | 85.35 |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-16 | $579.5225 | $535.9420 | -7.52% | 78.93 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-12-28 | $592.2760 | $622.9931 | +5.19% | 83.03 |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-06 | $598.5278 | $645.4854 | +7.85% | 89.54 |
| 2026-01-13 | 2026-01-20 | $620.6221 | $583.2801 | -6.02% | 84.15 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $571.8263 | $517.2449 | -9.55% | 76.12 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $458.4375 | $504.6694 | +10.08% | 83.80 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $542.5587 | $445.7691 | -17.84% | 68.85 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | $445.7691 | $447.9648 | +0.49% | 69.19 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $459.8387 | $477.4360 | +3.83% | 71.83 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-06 | $452.0911 | $431.3714 | -4.58% | 68.54 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $422.3674 | $436.3393 | +3.31% | 70.81 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-15 | $450.5591 | $434.8927 | -3.48% | 68.35 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $378.3588 | $351.9784 | -6.97% | 63.58 |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-05 | $299.8617 | $245.3537 | -18.18% | 52.02 |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-13 | $209.8091 | $202.0616 | -3.69% | 50.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-24 | $213.9333 | $194.4452 | -9.11% | 45.54 |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-23 | $223.0598 | $219.9245 | -1.41% | 44.90 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $211.8353 | $216.7873 | +2.34% | 45.95 |
| 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-08 | $209.8023 | $214.6539 | +2.31% | 47.01 |
| 2026-08-23 | 2026-08-30 | $276.7345 | $247.2022 | -10.67% | 41.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $248.1215 | $228.1197 | -8.06% | 38.61 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology