Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -8.55% and 14.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.4% to -5.9% | 1 |
| -5.9% to -3.5% | 0 |
| -3.5% to -1.1% | 3 |
| -1.1% to +1.4% | 3 |
| +1.4% to +3.8% | 0 |
| +3.8% to +6.2% | 0 |
| +6.2% to +8.7% | 0 |
| +8.7% to +11.1% | 0 |
| +11.1% to +13.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 8 | -1.14% | -0.03% | 37.5% | 13.54% | -8.39% |
| 3 days | 7 | 0.54% | 0.05% | 57.1% | 15.07% | -16.37% |
| 7 days | 7 | -8.55% | -10.15% | 14.3% | 10.08% | -28.64% |
| 14 days | 7 | -22.46% | -14.31% | 14.3% | 22.05% | -41.91% |
| 30 days | 7 | -28.44% | -22.68% | 0.0% | -0.66% | -46.06% |
| 90 days | 7 | -17.04% | -17.54% | 28.6% | 22.90% | -46.13% |
Historical occurrences
9 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -16.10 | $216.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | -15.25 | $220.96 | +1.07% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | -16.65 | $293.39 | -8.39% | -16.37% | -28.64% | -23.49% | -28.44% | -17.04% |
| 2026-05-29 | -21.17 | $299.86 | +0.77% | +0.91% | -18.18% | -31.58% | -34.88% | -10.37% |
| 2026-05-23 | -15.39 | $361.17 | -1.50% | -2.55% | -16.34% | -41.91% | -46.06% | -38.26% |
| 2026-05-19 | -15.97 | $378.36 | -2.15% | +0.54% | -6.97% | -22.46% | -43.88% | -46.13% |
| 2026-02-28 | -17.35 | $464.87 | -0.78% | -3.58% | -2.43% | -0.61% | -2.75% | -35.50% |
| 2026-02-06 | -17.40 | $458.44 | +13.54% | +15.07% | +10.08% | +22.05% | -0.66% | +1.63% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.60 | $514.13 | -2.83% | +6.36% | -8.55% | -2.16% | -2.12% | +22.90% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +10.08%
- 2026-02-28: -2.43%
- 2026-05-19: -6.97%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -28.64%
- 2026-05-29: -18.18%
- 2026-05-23: -16.34%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.