Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Avalanche has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.14% and 35.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -40.1% to -37.5% | 1 |
| -37.5% to -34.8% | 1 |
| -34.8% to -32.2% | 1 |
| -32.2% to -29.6% | 3 |
| -29.6% to -27.0% | 1 |
| -27.0% to -24.4% | 1 |
| -24.4% to -21.7% | 1 |
| -21.7% to -19.1% | 0 |
| -19.1% to -16.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.44% | -0.03% | 42.9% | 4.91% | -4.76% |
| 3 days | 14 | -1.01% | -0.97% | 42.9% | 5.90% | -9.98% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.14% | -3.07% | 35.7% | 9.18% | -24.82% |
| 14 days | 14 | -10.01% | -10.79% | 7.1% | 0.28% | -29.03% |
| 30 days | 14 | -16.06% | -13.16% | 28.6% | 14.00% | -33.62% |
| 90 days | 11 | -30.20% | -28.77% | 0.0% | -16.50% | -40.08% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $6.57 | +1.69% | -2.03% | -2.06% | -3.37% | +9.49% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $6.43 | -0.82% | +1.76% | +0.03% | +0.28% | +14.00% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $6.45 | +3.97% | +0.96% | +1.96% | -0.69% | -2.06% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $9.39 | -1.94% | -2.71% | -4.69% | -29.03% | -33.62% | -16.50% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $9.24 | -1.52% | +2.19% | +0.66% | -3.41% | -26.83% | -31.54% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $12.13 | +2.78% | +0.38% | +0.51% | -18.08% | -26.03% | -23.53% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $13.81 | -0.07% | -2.13% | -1.42% | -11.79% | -33.59% | -32.04% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $13.11 | +2.10% | -5.85% | -6.54% | -5.85% | +4.72% | -25.81% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $16.64 | -3.78% | -3.25% | +9.18% | -12.87% | -11.04% | -40.08% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $19.55 | -2.73% | -0.27% | -0.31% | -18.09% | -29.34% | -34.83% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $20.96 | -4.76% | -1.74% | -8.72% | -13.53% | -25.95% | -30.20% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $21.49 | +4.91% | +5.90% | -5.93% | -8.23% | -15.43% | -35.74% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2026-07-14: +1.96%
- 2026-05-19: +0.66%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2025-10-17: -8.72%
- 2025-12-13: -6.54%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.