Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
14 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $21.4854 | $20.2124 | -5.93% | 94.07 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $19.5510 | $19.4912 | -0.31% | 93.79 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $16.6429 | $18.1705 | +9.18% | 102.40 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $13.2216 | $13.1091 | -0.85% | 101.52 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $13.1091 | $12.2516 | -6.54% | 94.88 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $13.8070 | $13.6108 | -1.42% | 93.53 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.1331 | $12.1950 | +0.51% | 94.01 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.0771 | $8.3277 | -24.82% | 70.68 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $9.2378 | $9.2988 | +0.66% | 71.14 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $6.4463 | $6.5728 | +1.96% | 72.54 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $6.4310 | $6.4330 | +0.03% | 72.56 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology