Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Avalanche has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.96% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -25.2% to -20.3% | 3 |
| -20.3% to -15.4% | 2 |
| -15.4% to -10.5% | 1 |
| -10.5% to -5.6% | 2 |
| -5.6% to -0.7% | 2 |
| -0.7% to +4.1% | 0 |
| +4.1% to +9.0% | 0 |
| +9.0% to +13.9% | 0 |
| +13.9% to +18.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -1.56% | -0.22% | 41.7% | 10.87% | -4.31% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.86% | -1.27% | 50.0% | 13.44% | -17.73% |
| 7 days | 12 | -4.96% | -6.01% | 25.0% | 14.66% | -24.82% |
| 14 days | 12 | -10.02% | -8.39% | 16.7% | 18.83% | -25.22% |
| 30 days | 12 | -14.08% | -10.61% | 25.0% | 14.78% | -27.35% |
| 90 days | 11 | -24.71% | -27.83% | 0.0% | -11.52% | -53.18% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $6.69 | -3.27% | +0.74% | +0.23% | -1.83% | -3.80% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $9.54 | +0.37% | -4.46% | -4.15% | -8.27% | -2.18% | -29.17% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $11.53 | +2.03% | +5.21% | -13.49% | -20.45% | -27.35% | -18.76% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $12.47 | -1.74% | -2.46% | -2.74% | -21.83% | -26.04% | -24.71% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $12.31 | +10.87% | +13.44% | +14.66% | +18.83% | -11.47% | -27.69% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $12.08 | +2.18% | +4.63% | +12.99% | +14.93% | +0.70% | -19.26% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $12.89 | -4.23% | -8.09% | -5.78% | -1.94% | +14.78% | -23.89% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $13.41 | +0.36% | +9.01% | -0.17% | -8.94% | +7.88% | -32.29% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $16.81 | -4.31% | -7.67% | -15.17% | -11.11% | -22.01% | -47.95% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $17.79 | -1.75% | +2.16% | -14.90% | -25.22% | -24.35% | -53.18% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +14.66%
- 2025-12-26: +12.99%
- 2026-07-08: +0.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
- 2025-11-13: -15.17%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.