Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
12 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $17.7863 | $15.1362 | -14.90% | 85.10 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $13.4075 | $13.3846 | -0.17% | 84.96 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $12.8876 | $12.1427 | -5.78% | 80.04 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $12.0786 | $13.6475 | +12.99% | 90.44 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $12.4698 | $12.1278 | -2.74% | 87.96 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.0771 | $8.3277 | -24.82% | 66.13 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $9.5430 | $9.1473 | -4.15% | 63.39 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.1696 | $6.6353 | -18.78% | 51.48 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $6.6869 | $6.7022 | +0.23% | 51.60 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology