Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Avalanche has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.08% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.0% to -7.0% | 1 |
| -7.0% to -6.1% | 1 |
| -6.1% to -5.1% | 0 |
| -5.1% to -4.2% | 0 |
| -4.2% to -3.2% | 1 |
| -3.2% to -2.3% | 0 |
| -2.3% to -1.3% | 0 |
| -1.3% to -0.4% | 0 |
| -0.4% to +0.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $7.52 | -1.76% | +5.11% | -1.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $9.69 | -3.89% | +0.39% | -4.27% | -4.40% | +0.60% | -33.95% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $9.53 | -0.90% | -5.38% | +0.23% | +1.94% | -6.51% | -14.30% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $9.27 | -0.09% | -2.28% | -0.52% | -0.51% | -3.77% | +2.51% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $13.64 | +8.56% | -3.06% | +7.17% | -9.53% | +0.06% | -32.45% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +9.83%
- 2025-12-03: +7.17%
- 2026-03-05: +0.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-04-14: -4.27%
- 2026-09-04: -1.24%
- 2026-02-07: -0.52%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.