Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Avalanche has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.58% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.7% to -14.2% | 1 |
| -14.2% to -10.6% | 0 |
| -10.6% to -7.1% | 1 |
| -7.1% to -3.5% | 1 |
| -3.5% to +0.0% | 1 |
| +0.0% to +3.6% | 0 |
| +3.6% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +10.7% | 1 |
| +10.7% to +14.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.56% | 0.94% | 33.3% | 11.31% | -3.71% |
| 3 days | 6 | -3.05% | -1.58% | 33.3% | 14.20% | -17.73% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.58% | -6.71% | 33.3% | 8.74% | -24.82% |
| 14 days | 6 | -5.66% | -5.70% | 33.3% | 7.77% | -19.00% |
| 30 days | 6 | -13.23% | -10.16% | 16.7% | 8.31% | -16.84% |
| 90 days | 6 | -14.60% | -15.51% | 16.7% | 15.42% | -35.29% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $13.81 | -3.71% | -3.94% | +8.74% | +4.22% | -11.62% | -35.29% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +8.74%
- 2026-02-06: +7.74%
- 2025-10-11: -4.34%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.