Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Avalanche dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -63.1% to -53.2% | 2 |
| -53.2% to -43.4% | 1 |
| -43.4% to -33.5% | 2 |
| -33.5% to -23.7% | 11 |
| -23.7% to -13.9% | 6 |
| -13.9% to -4.0% | 1 |
| -4.0% to +5.8% | 1 |
| +5.8% to +15.7% | 3 |
| +15.7% to +25.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
31 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -4.76 | $7.42 | +0.47% | -1.74% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | -0.04 | $6.43 | +0.72% | +0.01% | +0.65% | +21.87% | +22.89% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -6.63 | $5.89 | +5.84% | +5.73% | +12.27% | +17.85% | +9.62% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | -3.84 | $6.38 | +4.02% | +5.24% | +5.93% | +1.13% | +5.58% | +25.51% |
| 2026-06-04 | -1.50 | $8.05 | -4.33% | -17.22% | -20.71% | -16.01% | -13.70% | -10.32% |
| 2026-05-29 | -1.22 | $8.92 | -1.12% | +0.56% | -13.69% | -25.59% | -27.98% | -16.59% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.06 | $9.19 | +0.49% | +1.03% | +0.12% | -2.42% | -25.24% | -31.20% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.84 | $9.75 | +1.50% | -4.72% | -4.76% | -7.40% | -32.65% | -35.23% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.58 | $9.12 | -0.32% | +0.68% | +5.40% | +6.93% | -3.28% | -27.97% |
| 2026-03-29 | -0.27 | $8.76 | -1.81% | +1.65% | +2.70% | +7.08% | +5.83% | -24.45% |
| 2026-03-20 | -1.80 | $9.54 | +0.37% | -4.46% | -4.15% | -8.27% | -2.18% | -29.17% |
| 2026-03-08 | -0.64 | $9.02 | -1.11% | +6.22% | +8.75% | +1.96% | -1.42% | -25.49% |
| 2026-02-24 | -0.99 | $8.45 | -0.95% | +10.64% | +8.98% | +10.07% | +15.36% | +8.86% |
| 2026-02-18 | -1.06 | $9.24 | -3.27% | -0.20% | -9.38% | -0.05% | +3.27% | -0.03% |
| 2026-02-10 | -1.21 | $9.06 | -3.41% | -0.94% | +3.11% | -6.67% | +5.48% | +12.92% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.57 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2026-01-31 | -1.62 | $10.90 | -6.79% | -6.57% | -14.94% | -15.39% | -16.69% | -16.59% |
| 2026-01-25 | -0.13 | $12.16 | -5.23% | +0.26% | -16.49% | -23.86% | -30.50% | -22.75% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.77 | $12.13 | +2.78% | +0.38% | +0.51% | -18.08% | -26.03% | -23.53% |
| 2026-01-17 | -1.60 | $13.61 | +1.02% | -6.39% | -10.52% | -19.93% | -31.30% | -28.51% |
| 2026-01-10 | -0.54 | $13.81 | -0.07% | -2.13% | -1.42% | -11.79% | -33.59% | -32.04% |
| 2025-12-26 | -0.22 | $12.08 | +2.18% | +4.63% | +12.99% | +14.93% | +0.70% | -19.26% |
| 2025-12-17 | -0.03 | $12.34 | -4.00% | -0.70% | -1.29% | +1.79% | +12.11% | -14.90% |
| 2025-12-13 | -2.37 | $13.11 | +2.10% | -5.85% | -6.54% | -5.85% | +4.72% | -25.81% |
| 2025-12-01 | -3.44 | $13.76 | -7.33% | +7.60% | -2.21% | -6.34% | -8.73% | -32.93% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-26: +12.99%
- 2026-06-20: +12.27%
- 2025-11-22: +11.66%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-04: -20.71%
- 2026-01-25: -16.49%
- 2026-01-31: -14.94%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.