Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Avalanche has recorded 43 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.24% and 39.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.4% to -2.7% | 7 |
| -2.7% to -1.0% | 11 |
| -1.0% to +0.7% | 13 |
| +0.7% to +2.4% | 7 |
| +2.4% to +4.0% | 2 |
| +4.0% to +5.7% | 1 |
| +5.7% to +7.4% | 0 |
| +7.4% to +9.1% | 2 |
| +9.1% to +10.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 44 | -0.48% | 0.03% | 40.9% | 10.76% | -4.36% |
| 3 days | 43 | 0.03% | -1.19% | 51.2% | 10.61% | -25.44% |
| 7 days | 43 | -1.24% | -2.62% | 39.5% | 12.84% | -23.95% |
| 14 days | 41 | -4.32% | -5.51% | 29.3% | 12.79% | -34.01% |
| 30 days | 40 | -4.15% | -10.30% | 30.0% | 11.36% | -39.34% |
| 90 days | 32 | -34.21% | -31.01% | 9.4% | 17.46% | -61.21% |
Historical occurrences
44 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 3.64 | $7.56 | -3.89% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 4.09 | $7.90 | +2.18% | -1.34% | -7.67% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 4.57 | $7.52 | -1.76% | +5.11% | -1.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.05 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 5.78 | $6.54 | +0.34% | +1.71% | -1.93% | -3.36% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 7.51 | $6.77 | -0.54% | -3.00% | -8.64% | -4.37% | +11.36% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.97 | $6.70 | -0.10% | -1.77% | -2.06% | -1.99% | -3.77% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.23 | $6.68 | +0.89% | -4.11% | -2.53% | -6.21% | -3.00% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.50 | $6.66 | -2.03% | +1.93% | +3.88% | -3.28% | -3.64% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 6.22 | $6.62 | -2.89% | +0.75% | +4.97% | +1.83% | +1.82% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 4.02 | $6.48 | -0.42% | +2.08% | +0.75% | +3.19% | -3.36% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 5.84 | $6.24 | -2.06% | +3.91% | +3.01% | +11.59% | +5.39% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 4.02 | $6.64 | -1.05% | +2.22% | -4.92% | -6.16% | -1.37% | +17.46% |
| 2026-05-09 | 4.27 | $9.91 | +0.57% | +2.18% | -3.76% | -7.70% | -31.29% | -35.07% |
| 2026-04-21 | 3.02 | $9.28 | +1.18% | +1.13% | -0.13% | -1.14% | +0.09% | -30.39% |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.05 | $9.73 | +0.06% | -7.44% | -3.56% | -6.58% | -4.52% | -31.19% |
| 2026-04-14 | 7.32 | $9.69 | -3.89% | +0.39% | -4.27% | -4.40% | +0.60% | -33.95% |
| 2026-04-10 | 3.72 | $9.38 | +0.14% | -3.75% | +3.71% | +0.01% | +6.20% | -31.06% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.37 | $9.46 | -4.36% | -0.67% | -1.51% | -0.74% | +0.46% | -26.80% |
| 2026-03-24 | 5.46 | $9.62 | +0.89% | -4.87% | -8.47% | -7.52% | -2.86% | -36.48% |
| 2026-03-17 | 4.48 | $10.50 | -2.30% | -9.12% | -8.42% | -16.18% | -10.07% | -35.39% |
| 2026-03-10 | 4.32 | $9.31 | +2.96% | +4.51% | +12.84% | +3.33% | -2.79% | -26.84% |
| 2026-03-05 | 3.21 | $9.53 | -0.90% | -5.38% | +0.23% | +1.94% | -6.51% | -14.30% |
| 2026-02-26 | 13.94 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-15 | 4.90 | $9.67 | -3.33% | -4.47% | -4.81% | -4.59% | +8.56% | -1.42% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-10: +12.84%
- 2025-09-14: +10.34%
- 2026-08-20: +9.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-09: -23.95%
- 2026-01-28: -18.50%
- 2026-01-14: -17.97%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.