Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
44 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 31 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (13 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-18 | $29.4520 | $31.8110 | +8.01% | 108.01 |
| 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-25 | $31.8110 | $32.3312 | +1.64% | 109.78 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-06 | $30.0137 | $30.0472 | +0.11% | 109.90 |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-16 | $28.8180 | $21.9169 | -23.95% | 83.58 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | $20.8292 | $18.8415 | -9.54% | 75.61 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-13 | $16.6255 | $16.8091 | +1.10% | 76.44 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-02 | $13.8915 | $12.7512 | -8.21% | 70.17 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $13.6386 | $14.6159 | +7.17% | 75.19 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-17 | $14.6159 | $12.3382 | -15.58% | 63.48 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $12.2516 | $12.3420 | +0.74% | 63.94 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-09 | $13.6475 | $13.8820 | +1.72% | 65.04 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $14.7919 | $12.1331 | -17.97% | 53.35 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2026-02-04 | $12.1950 | $9.9393 | -18.50% | 43.48 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $9.2696 | $9.2211 | -0.52% | 43.26 |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-22 | $9.6726 | $9.2076 | -4.81% | 41.18 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $9.5407 | $9.5327 | -0.08% | 41.14 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $9.5327 | $9.5542 | +0.23% | 41.23 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $10.5001 | $9.6155 | -8.42% | 37.76 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $9.6155 | $8.8015 | -8.47% | 34.56 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $9.4585 | $9.3153 | -1.51% | 34.04 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2026-04-24 | $9.7306 | $9.3838 | -3.56% | 32.83 |
| 2026-05-09 | 2026-05-16 | $9.9079 | $9.5350 | -3.76% | 31.59 |
| 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-19 | $6.6369 | $6.3106 | -4.92% | 30.04 |
| 2026-06-21 | 2026-06-28 | $6.2363 | $6.4243 | +3.01% | 30.94 |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-07 | $6.6648 | $6.9232 | +3.88% | 32.14 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-17 | $6.6769 | $6.5081 | -2.53% | 31.33 |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-02 | $6.7721 | $6.1869 | -8.64% | 28.62 |
| 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $6.5442 | $6.4182 | -1.93% | 28.07 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $6.7745 | $7.4403 | +9.83% | 30.83 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $7.5180 | $7.4249 | -1.24% | 30.45 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology