Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Avalanche has recorded 56 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.08% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -44.8% to -37.6% | 4 |
| -37.6% to -30.5% | 2 |
| -30.5% to -23.3% | 7 |
| -23.3% to -16.1% | 8 |
| -16.1% to -9.0% | 6 |
| -9.0% to -1.8% | 3 |
| -1.8% to +5.3% | 7 |
| +5.3% to +12.5% | 10 |
| +12.5% to +19.7% | 7 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 57 | -0.28% | -0.31% | 43.9% | 11.31% | -12.70% |
| 3 days | 57 | -0.23% | -1.09% | 49.1% | 14.20% | -25.33% |
| 7 days | 56 | -1.08% | -3.52% | 42.9% | 11.14% | -28.70% |
| 14 days | 56 | -5.42% | -6.05% | 35.7% | 13.33% | -32.92% |
| 30 days | 54 | -6.95% | -8.39% | 42.6% | 19.65% | -44.77% |
| 90 days | 47 | -29.46% | -25.62% | 10.6% | 25.51% | -66.12% |
Historical occurrences
58 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.89 | $7.27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | -4.76 | $7.42 | +0.47% | -1.74% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -3.01 | $7.11 | +1.66% | +1.11% | +11.14% | +2.61% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -4.38 | $7.49 | +1.51% | -2.23% | -2.16% | +1.31% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | -3.35 | $6.43 | -0.04% | -0.23% | +0.25% | +13.33% | +18.01% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -3.00 | $6.19 | +5.78% | +7.92% | +4.68% | +2.22% | +16.83% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -4.96 | $6.40 | +2.61% | +0.46% | +2.57% | +0.46% | +16.23% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -5.40 | $6.26 | +0.59% | +7.56% | +2.69% | +2.72% | +19.65% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -3.41 | $6.69 | -3.27% | +0.74% | +0.23% | -1.83% | -3.80% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -3.49 | $6.23 | +6.22% | +3.40% | +9.08% | +7.21% | +8.74% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -6.63 | $6.31 | -6.63% | -3.21% | -1.31% | +7.65% | +4.07% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | -3.84 | $6.38 | +4.02% | +5.24% | +5.93% | +1.13% | +5.58% | +25.51% |
| 2026-06-05 | -4.33 | $7.70 | -12.70% | -11.57% | -13.79% | -18.03% | -9.60% | -6.61% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.44 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.13 | $9.15 | +2.63% | +1.68% | -3.56% | -26.51% | -33.21% | -20.28% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.66 | $9.54 | -2.56% | -3.12% | -4.09% | -7.50% | -28.85% | -32.36% |
| 2026-04-19 | -4.12 | $9.34 | -3.52% | +0.57% | +0.31% | -1.64% | -1.04% | -29.48% |
| 2026-04-15 | -3.89 | $9.32 | +1.37% | +4.53% | +0.78% | -1.53% | +6.25% | -30.80% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.67 | $9.03 | +7.32% | +4.55% | -0.28% | +4.79% | +8.88% | -27.52% |
| 2026-04-09 | -4.36 | $9.05 | +3.72% | +3.64% | +4.38% | +3.25% | +9.52% | -26.08% |
| 2026-04-03 | -4.11 | $8.75 | +1.81% | +4.55% | +7.19% | +11.16% | +4.89% | -23.92% |
| 2026-03-27 | -6.21 | $9.15 | -4.02% | -6.01% | -4.30% | +2.58% | +2.37% | -29.46% |
| 2026-03-22 | -3.99 | $9.20 | -0.86% | +5.49% | -4.79% | -2.22% | +0.90% | -35.93% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.27 | $9.72 | -1.80% | -5.37% | +0.36% | -6.06% | +0.20% | -29.28% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.90 | $9.08 | -0.64% | +2.51% | +7.33% | +5.51% | +0.82% | -15.20% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-31: +11.14%
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2026-06-26: +9.08%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-05: -28.70%
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.