Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
58 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 35 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (23 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-27 | $33.7593 | $29.0496 | -13.95% | 86.05 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025-10-12 | $30.1319 | $21.4854 | -28.70% | 61.36 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $22.7524 | $19.5510 | -14.07% | 52.72 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $19.5510 | $19.4912 | -0.31% | 52.56 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $19.4912 | $16.0144 | -17.84% | 43.19 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $16.1013 | $16.0839 | -0.11% | 43.14 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $16.0839 | $13.8139 | -14.11% | 37.05 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $13.8139 | $15.0210 | +8.74% | 40.29 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-12-07 | $14.2495 | $13.4075 | -5.91% | 37.91 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-18 | $14.1288 | $11.8444 | -16.17% | 31.78 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $11.8444 | $12.1055 | +2.20% | 32.48 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $14.1144 | $14.6275 | +3.64% | 33.66 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $13.8327 | $12.2528 | -11.42% | 29.82 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $11.5270 | $9.9718 | -13.49% | 25.79 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $8.3277 | $8.9723 | +7.74% | 27.79 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $9.3501 | $8.5389 | -8.68% | 25.38 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $8.5389 | $9.0794 | +6.33% | 26.99 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $9.0780 | $9.7438 | +7.33% | 28.96 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $9.7177 | $9.7527 | +0.36% | 29.07 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $9.1473 | $8.7535 | -4.30% | 27.82 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | $8.7535 | $9.3829 | +7.19% | 29.82 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $9.0313 | $9.0065 | -0.28% | 29.74 |
| 2026-05-16 | 2026-05-23 | $9.5350 | $9.1452 | -4.09% | 28.52 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $9.1452 | $8.8200 | -3.56% | 27.51 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.1696 | $6.6353 | -18.78% | 22.34 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $6.3806 | $6.7589 | +5.93% | 23.66 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $6.3106 | $6.2279 | -1.31% | 23.35 |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-07-03 | $6.2279 | $6.7935 | +9.08% | 25.48 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $6.6869 | $6.7022 | +0.23% | 25.53 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $6.2625 | $6.4310 | +2.69% | 26.22 |
| 2026-08-02 | 2026-08-09 | $6.1869 | $6.4764 | +4.68% | 27.45 |
| 2026-08-23 | 2026-08-30 | $7.4933 | $7.3312 | -2.16% | 26.85 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $7.1102 | $7.9020 | +11.14% | 29.84 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology