Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Avalanche has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.79% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -31.7% to -26.8% | 1 |
| -26.8% to -21.9% | 1 |
| -21.9% to -17.1% | 1 |
| -17.1% to -12.2% | 2 |
| -12.2% to -7.3% | 2 |
| -7.3% to -2.5% | 1 |
| -2.5% to +2.4% | 0 |
| +2.4% to +7.2% | 1 |
| +7.2% to +12.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | -1.36% | -0.87% | 40.0% | 2.97% | -4.00% |
| 3 days | 10 | -1.43% | -0.56% | 40.0% | 14.20% | -7.22% |
| 7 days | 10 | -1.79% | -1.11% | 40.0% | 9.18% | -11.97% |
| 14 days | 10 | -6.79% | -6.97% | 20.0% | 3.83% | -18.08% |
| 30 days | 10 | -12.56% | -11.52% | 20.0% | 12.11% | -31.66% |
| 90 days | 10 | -28.50% | -24.71% | 10.0% | 11.86% | -58.04% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -23.80 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-02-04 | -18.50 | $9.94 | -1.92% | -6.74% | -11.97% | -7.03% | -4.96% | -7.71% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.49 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2026-01-21 | -17.97 | $12.13 | +2.78% | +0.38% | +0.51% | -18.08% | -26.03% | -23.53% |
| 2025-12-17 | -15.58 | $12.34 | -4.00% | -0.70% | -1.29% | +1.79% | +12.11% | -14.90% |
| 2025-11-20 | -15.17 | $14.26 | -3.12% | -7.22% | +4.79% | +3.83% | -14.08% | -35.20% |
| 2025-11-18 | -20.20 | $14.50 | +0.42% | -4.74% | -4.20% | -12.06% | -18.32% | -35.52% |
| 2025-11-04 | -18.12 | $16.64 | -3.78% | -3.25% | +9.18% | -12.87% | -11.04% | -40.08% |
| 2025-10-11 | -33.48 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
| 2025-09-26 | -18.11 | $28.85 | +0.69% | +4.03% | +7.36% | -1.59% | -31.66% | -58.04% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2025-09-26: +7.36%
- 2025-11-20: +4.79%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-04: -11.97%
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
- 2025-10-11: -4.34%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.