Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Avalanche dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -25.2% to -20.4% | 1 |
| -20.4% to -15.6% | 3 |
| -15.6% to -10.9% | 1 |
| -10.9% to -6.1% | 3 |
| -6.1% to -1.3% | 5 |
| -1.3% to +3.5% | 3 |
| +3.5% to +8.3% | 3 |
| +8.3% to +13.1% | 0 |
| +13.1% to +17.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
24 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 1.56 | $7.46 | -0.81% | +1.37% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 2.17 | $8.07 | -0.81% | -8.04% | -6.35% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.59 | $7.52 | -1.76% | +5.11% | -1.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.11 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.63 | $6.32 | -0.01% | +0.07% | +18.48% | +15.92% | +19.56% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 1.88 | $6.68 | -0.32% | -3.70% | -5.41% | -5.22% | +12.60% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 1.56 | $6.54 | +0.34% | +1.71% | -1.93% | -3.36% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 1.57 | $6.77 | -0.54% | -3.00% | -8.64% | -4.37% | +11.36% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | 2.11 | $5.89 | +5.84% | +5.73% | +12.27% | +17.85% | +9.62% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.61 | $7.70 | -12.70% | -11.57% | -13.79% | -18.03% | -9.60% | -6.61% |
| 2026-04-17 | 1.71 | $9.73 | +0.06% | -7.44% | -3.56% | -6.58% | -4.52% | -31.19% |
| 2026-04-14 | 1.53 | $9.69 | -3.89% | +0.39% | -4.27% | -4.40% | +0.60% | -33.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 2.69 | $9.46 | -4.36% | -0.67% | -1.51% | -0.74% | +0.46% | -26.80% |
| 2026-03-17 | 1.97 | $10.50 | -2.30% | -9.12% | -8.42% | -16.18% | -10.07% | -35.39% |
| 2026-03-14 | 1.59 | $9.74 | +0.67% | +7.76% | -1.70% | -9.90% | -7.31% | -31.89% |
| 2026-03-05 | 1.61 | $9.53 | -0.90% | -5.38% | +0.23% | +1.94% | -6.51% | -14.30% |
| 2026-03-01 | 1.51 | $9.23 | -1.62% | +0.08% | -2.27% | +6.28% | -4.63% | -4.43% |
| 2026-02-26 | 2.40 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.09 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2026-02-01 | 1.84 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.51 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2026-01-13 | 1.65 | $13.51 | +9.47% | +2.37% | -5.71% | -12.96% | -35.60% | -33.16% |
| 2025-11-08 | 1.52 | $17.79 | -1.75% | +2.16% | -14.90% | -25.22% | -24.35% | -53.18% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.09 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +18.48%
- 2026-06-20: +12.27%
- 2026-08-20: +9.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2025-11-08: -14.90%
- 2026-06-05: -13.79%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.