Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
14 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $2.3839 | $2.3600 | -1.00% | 99.00 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $2.4235 | $2.6046 | +7.47% | 106.40 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $2.3085 | $2.5258 | +9.41% | 116.41 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $2.0349 | $2.0087 | -1.29% | 114.91 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $2.0087 | $1.9075 | -5.04% | 109.12 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $2.0992 | $2.0741 | -1.20% | 107.82 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $1.8975 | $1.9256 | +1.48% | 109.41 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $1.8159 | $1.2133 | -33.18% | 73.11 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $1.3891 | $1.3470 | -3.03% | 70.89 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $1.0665 | $1.1112 | +4.20% | 73.87 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $1.0821 | $1.0339 | -4.46% | 70.58 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.