Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
XRP has recorded 37 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.76% and 37.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.2% to -17.2% | 3 |
| -17.2% to -10.2% | 3 |
| -10.2% to -3.3% | 11 |
| -3.3% to +3.7% | 9 |
| +3.7% to +10.7% | 5 |
| +10.7% to +17.6% | 4 |
| +17.6% to +24.6% | 0 |
| +24.6% to +31.6% | 0 |
| +31.6% to +38.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 38 | -0.41% | 0.02% | 44.7% | 20.47% | -5.94% |
| 3 days | 38 | 0.25% | 0.31% | 52.6% | 18.78% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 37 | -0.76% | 1.44% | 37.8% | 53.17% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 37 | -0.97% | 0.19% | 45.9% | 38.53% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 37 | 0.91% | -0.83% | 51.4% | 34.34% | -32.33% |
| 90 days | 32 | -20.29% | -16.71% | 15.6% | 27.97% | -40.31% |
Historical occurrences
38 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.01 | $1.39 | -4.35% | -2.04% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | -0.01 | $0.99 | +0.98% | +11.33% | +53.17% | +36.79% | +29.27% | — |
| 2026-08-15 | -0.02 | $1.00 | +0.32% | +0.38% | +45.63% | +38.53% | +34.34% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $1.07 | +0.27% | +1.59% | +0.89% | -5.05% | +33.55% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.02 | $1.07 | -2.83% | -2.58% | -2.05% | +1.62% | +1.72% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.01 | $1.13 | -1.67% | -7.57% | -6.48% | +1.44% | +1.20% | — |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.02 | $1.09 | +5.66% | +4.02% | +5.24% | +5.14% | +4.68% | +27.97% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.02 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.01 | $1.30 | +1.06% | +3.02% | -7.74% | -15.66% | -19.52% | +10.26% |
| 2026-05-22 | -0.01 | $1.37 | -2.70% | -1.49% | -4.02% | -14.73% | -16.08% | -19.29% |
| 2026-04-12 | -0.01 | $1.36 | -2.20% | +0.63% | +5.85% | +5.26% | +8.93% | -18.52% |
| 2026-04-04 | -0.01 | $1.32 | -0.15% | +0.13% | +2.78% | +11.93% | +5.25% | -17.62% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.01 | $1.35 | -1.97% | -2.29% | -0.42% | +3.26% | +2.87% | -23.01% |
| 2026-03-30 | -0.01 | $1.33 | -0.38% | +1.54% | +0.72% | -0.20% | +4.15% | -21.29% |
| 2026-03-26 | -0.01 | $1.42 | -3.87% | -6.25% | -5.26% | -5.65% | +0.91% | -22.07% |
| 2026-03-12 | -0.02 | $1.38 | +1.02% | +2.93% | +5.89% | +2.78% | -2.07% | -17.90% |
| 2026-03-06 | -0.01 | $1.41 | -2.71% | -3.88% | -0.76% | +3.27% | -6.53% | -14.88% |
| 2026-03-03 | -0.02 | $1.40 | -1.80% | +0.77% | -1.92% | +10.06% | -3.60% | -4.81% |
| 2026-02-27 | -0.02 | $1.41 | -3.32% | -3.56% | -0.22% | -0.97% | -5.55% | -7.93% |
| 2026-02-22 | -0.01 | $1.45 | -5.94% | -6.34% | -4.28% | -3.71% | -0.86% | -8.12% |
| 2026-02-14 | -0.01 | $1.42 | +7.29% | +5.76% | +1.48% | -3.64% | +2.89% | +4.60% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.01 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-01-30 | -0.01 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-26 | -0.01 | $1.84 | +3.64% | +4.44% | -13.19% | -21.80% | -26.30% | -22.60% |
| 2026-01-19 | -0.01 | $1.96 | +1.44% | -0.36% | -6.09% | -18.48% | -24.15% | -26.91% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-17: +53.17%
- 2026-08-15: +45.63%
- 2025-12-30: +27.33%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2025-11-14: -13.78%
- 2026-01-26: -13.19%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.