Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 10% One-Day Drop?
XRP has recorded 2 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 5.17% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 2 | 10.53% | 10.53% | 100.0% | 20.47% | 0.58% |
| 3 days | 2 | 14.39% | 14.39% | 100.0% | 18.78% | 10.01% |
| 7 days | 2 | 5.17% | 5.17% | 50.0% | 13.48% | -3.13% |
| 14 days | 2 | 11.54% | 11.54% | 100.0% | 17.24% | 5.83% |
| 30 days | 2 | 7.34% | 7.34% | 50.0% | 15.08% | -0.40% |
| 90 days | 2 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 50.0% | 17.82% | -10.31% |
Historical occurrences
2 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -20.06 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.48 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2025-10-11: -3.13%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-11: -3.13%
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.