Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
TRON has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.46% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -3.9% to -2.6% | 1 |
| -2.6% to -1.4% | 0 |
| -1.4% to -0.1% | 0 |
| -0.1% to +1.1% | 1 |
| +1.1% to +2.4% | 0 |
| +2.4% to +3.6% | 0 |
| +3.6% to +4.9% | 0 |
| +4.9% to +6.1% | 2 |
| +6.1% to +7.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $0.33 | -0.01% | -1.76% | -1.58% | +0.22% | +1.47% | +2.19% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $0.31 | -0.10% | -1.57% | +1.87% | +5.16% | +5.78% | +4.03% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $0.29 | -1.34% | +0.66% | +3.15% | +7.35% | +12.49% | +11.96% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $0.28 | +0.87% | +2.22% | +3.05% | +6.30% | +11.50% | +23.81% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $0.27 | +1.68% | +3.25% | +4.02% | +5.87% | +6.48% | +28.57% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $0.29 | +0.70% | -0.37% | -5.51% | -3.90% | -5.22% | -4.23% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +4.02%
- 2026-03-09: +3.15%
- 2026-03-02: +3.05%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -5.51%
- 2026-06-08: -1.58%
- 2026-03-22: +1.87%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.