Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON After a 3% One-Day Drop?
TRON has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.22% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.1% to -4.1% | 2 |
| -4.1% to +0.0% | 0 |
| +0.0% to +4.1% | 5 |
| +4.1% to +8.2% | 0 |
| +8.2% to +12.3% | 1 |
| +12.3% to +16.3% | 0 |
| +16.3% to +20.4% | 0 |
| +20.4% to +24.5% | 0 |
| +24.5% to +28.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | -3.07 | $0.32 | +0.87% | +2.87% | +5.16% | +3.30% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -3.64 | $0.32 | +1.22% | +2.02% | -1.54% | +1.07% | +2.77% | +3.32% |
| 2026-06-03 | -3.19 | $0.33 | +0.16% | -3.67% | -2.89% | -4.70% | -4.53% | +0.02% |
| 2026-05-29 | -4.11 | $0.35 | -2.42% | -0.42% | -5.76% | -10.20% | -8.95% | -4.68% |
| 2026-04-11 | -3.57 | $0.32 | -0.09% | +0.37% | +2.67% | +1.28% | +9.81% | +3.97% |
| 2026-02-06 | -4.84 | $0.27 | +1.68% | +3.25% | +4.02% | +5.87% | +6.48% | +28.57% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.78 | $0.30 | +0.77% | +0.17% | -0.90% | -3.73% | -3.99% | +10.80% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.74 | $0.28 | +1.53% | +0.90% | +5.39% | +3.65% | -0.22% | +1.26% |
| 2025-10-25 | -3.16 | $0.30 | -2.22% | -1.84% | -2.53% | -3.79% | -9.48% | +0.47% |
| 2025-10-11 | -4.74 | $0.32 | -1.94% | +0.65% | -3.63% | -5.29% | -9.40% | -8.14% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +5.39%
- 2026-09-02: +5.16%
- 2026-02-06: +4.02%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-29: -5.76%
- 2025-10-11: -3.63%
- 2026-06-03: -2.89%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.