Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Sui has recorded 17 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.47% and 47.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.0% to -23.9% | 1 |
| -23.9% to -15.8% | 2 |
| -15.8% to -7.8% | 1 |
| -7.8% to +0.3% | 2 |
| +0.3% to +8.4% | 5 |
| +8.4% to +16.5% | 5 |
| +16.5% to +24.6% | 0 |
| +24.6% to +32.7% | 0 |
| +32.7% to +40.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 17 | -0.07% | 0.50% | 41.2% | 20.99% | -7.53% |
| 3 days | 17 | 2.10% | 2.44% | 64.7% | 23.30% | -11.00% |
| 7 days | 17 | -1.47% | -1.39% | 47.1% | 19.72% | -14.22% |
| 14 days | 17 | 4.28% | 1.54% | 64.7% | 40.73% | -32.02% |
| 30 days | 17 | 4.32% | -5.10% | 52.9% | 18.33% | -46.77% |
| 90 days | 14 | -26.47% | -23.26% | 14.3% | 16.60% | -47.87% |
Historical occurrences
17 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | -0.01 | $0.67 | +0.00% | +2.12% | +2.54% | +9.19% | +18.33% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -0.01 | $0.74 | -4.52% | -2.84% | -7.02% | -9.71% | +9.56% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.01 | $0.72 | -2.09% | -4.92% | -2.44% | +4.28% | +6.37% | — |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.02 | $0.95 | -1.04% | -4.07% | -2.73% | +40.73% | +5.72% | -24.85% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.01 | $0.87 | +10.24% | +6.64% | +10.11% | +8.24% | +13.86% | -13.36% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.01 | $0.87 | +0.80% | +10.33% | +7.95% | +9.79% | +6.52% | -11.80% |
| 2026-03-29 | -0.01 | $0.86 | -1.41% | +2.10% | +1.44% | +9.51% | +8.87% | -18.90% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $0.95 | -7.53% | -11.00% | -9.43% | -2.27% | -1.38% | -28.09% |
| 2026-03-06 | -0.01 | $0.98 | -5.25% | -5.92% | +3.75% | +1.25% | -10.99% | -15.85% |
| 2026-02-28 | -0.01 | $0.93 | +0.19% | +1.74% | +0.20% | +9.29% | -8.52% | +0.24% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.02 | $0.91 | -0.07% | +8.64% | +0.51% | +0.94% | +6.89% | +16.60% |
| 2026-01-19 | -0.01 | $1.66 | -4.61% | -7.70% | -14.22% | -32.02% | -39.62% | -42.15% |
| 2026-01-11 | -0.01 | $1.81 | -0.07% | +4.65% | -1.47% | -15.94% | -46.77% | -47.87% |
| 2025-12-02 | -0.01 | $1.35 | +20.99% | +23.30% | +19.72% | +9.19% | +4.32% | -31.80% |
| 2025-11-25 | -0.01 | $1.53 | +2.29% | +1.07% | -11.86% | +5.52% | -7.33% | -40.19% |
| 2025-10-31 | -0.02 | $2.29 | +3.13% | +2.78% | -14.18% | -18.43% | -34.56% | -37.27% |
| 2025-10-11 | -0.01 | $2.61 | -2.55% | +14.63% | -6.55% | -3.35% | -17.97% | -30.34% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +19.72%
- 2026-04-07: +10.11%
- 2026-04-05: +7.95%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-19: -14.22%
- 2025-10-31: -14.18%
- 2025-11-25: -11.86%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.