Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After 3 Consecutive Red Days
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after 3 consecutive red days, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
29 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 23 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | $0.3800 | $0.3676 | -3.25% | 96.75 |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-24 | $0.3120 | $0.3115 | -0.18% | 96.58 |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-06 | $0.3159 | $0.2801 | -11.33% | 85.64 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $0.2681 | $0.2368 | -11.69% | 75.63 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $0.2316 | $0.2535 | +9.44% | 82.77 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $0.2395 | $0.2379 | -0.67% | 82.22 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.2098 | $0.2086 | -0.57% | 81.75 |
| 2026-01-09 | 2026-01-16 | $0.2303 | $0.2283 | -0.85% | 81.05 |
| 2026-01-17 | 2026-01-24 | $0.2261 | $0.2122 | -6.13% | 76.09 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $0.1649 | $0.1566 | -5.04% | 72.25 |
| 2026-02-18 | 2026-02-25 | $0.1662 | $0.1498 | -9.84% | 65.14 |
| 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-15 | $0.1503 | $0.1665 | +10.77% | 72.16 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $0.1654 | $0.1739 | +5.14% | 75.87 |
| 2026-04-05 | 2026-04-12 | $0.1619 | $0.1536 | -5.11% | 71.99 |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026-05-02 | $0.1731 | $0.1596 | -7.83% | 66.35 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-21 | $0.1589 | $0.1437 | -9.58% | 60.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-11 | $0.2089 | $0.1827 | -12.54% | 52.47 |
| 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-29 | $0.2097 | $0.1726 | -17.71% | 43.18 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.1887 | $0.1844 | -2.28% | 42.19 |
| 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-01 | $0.1778 | $0.1720 | -3.25% | 40.82 |
| 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-13 | $0.1648 | $0.1594 | -3.32% | 39.46 |
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-24 | $0.1563 | $0.1996 | +27.77% | 50.42 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.