Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.36% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | 0.15% | 0.85% | 50.0% | 4.65% | -1.56% |
| 3 days | 4 | -1.87% | -1.26% | 25.0% | 9.91% | -11.19% |
| 7 days | 4 | -5.36% | -1.72% | 25.0% | 11.25% | -7.39% |
| 14 days | 4 | 3.04% | 3.34% | 75.0% | 7.42% | -0.15% |
| 30 days | 4 | -4.33% | -4.86% | 25.0% | 0.14% | -10.91% |
| 90 days | 3 | -10.57% | -15.89% | 0.0% | -9.07% | -28.02% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | -23.69 | $0.18 | -0.77% | -3.51% | +11.25% | +4.12% | -0.40% | — |
| 2026-06-08 | -20.87 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-06-06 | -21.89 | $0.20 | +4.65% | -0.23% | -7.39% | +7.42% | +0.14% | -9.07% |
| 2025-10-11 | -21.35 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-26: +11.25%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
- 2026-06-08: -7.20%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: -7.39%
- 2026-06-08: -7.20%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.