Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 20% 30-Day Correction?
Stellar has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.52% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.3% to -8.1% | 2 |
| -8.1% to -4.8% | 1 |
| -4.8% to -1.6% | 2 |
| -1.6% to +1.6% | 0 |
| +1.6% to +4.8% | 3 |
| +4.8% to +8.1% | 1 |
| +8.1% to +11.3% | 0 |
| +11.3% to +14.5% | 0 |
| +14.5% to +17.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | 0.94% | 0.88% | 70.0% | 8.86% | -3.93% |
| 3 days | 10 | -1.06% | 0.25% | 50.0% | 14.10% | -8.77% |
| 7 days | 10 | -0.52% | -0.52% | 50.0% | 17.75% | -11.28% |
| 14 days | 10 | -3.79% | -2.03% | 30.0% | 9.68% | -14.92% |
| 30 days | 10 | -13.80% | -10.67% | 20.0% | 8.13% | -18.53% |
| 90 days | 9 | -30.74% | -19.11% | 11.1% | 48.89% | -42.70% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | -33.58 | $0.17 | +1.12% | +14.10% | +17.75% | +7.99% | +0.82% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | -26.72 | $0.15 | +0.75% | +3.34% | -4.01% | +9.68% | +8.13% | +48.89% |
| 2026-02-04 | -23.76 | $0.18 | -3.93% | +0.13% | -10.80% | -6.74% | -12.13% | -11.58% |
| 2026-02-02 | -20.42 | $0.18 | +3.47% | -2.24% | -7.71% | -2.40% | -13.60% | -8.68% |
| 2025-12-02 | -23.30 | $0.23 | +8.86% | +7.70% | +2.91% | -5.76% | -14.04% | -34.00% |
| 2025-11-20 | -24.25 | $0.25 | -3.78% | -6.55% | +5.10% | +5.01% | -10.92% | -32.47% |
| 2025-11-18 | -21.54 | $0.25 | +3.69% | -4.04% | +3.32% | -5.19% | -14.75% | -30.74% |
| 2025-11-13 | -21.10 | $0.28 | -3.34% | -6.46% | -11.28% | -6.76% | -14.00% | -42.70% |
| 2025-11-01 | -23.54 | $0.30 | +0.05% | -8.77% | -3.94% | -14.92% | -18.53% | -34.68% |
| 2025-10-18 | -21.99 | $0.31 | +1.90% | +5.26% | +3.50% | -1.22% | -17.67% | -26.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-29: +17.75%
- 2025-11-20: +5.10%
- 2025-10-18: +3.50%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-13: -11.28%
- 2026-02-04: -10.80%
- 2026-02-02: -7.71%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.