Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Solana
48 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 30 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (18 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-27 | $238.5627 | $204.8154 | -14.15% | 85.85 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $220.3896 | $202.5850 | -8.08% | 78.92 |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-23 | $193.9819 | $180.0885 | -7.16% | 73.27 |
| 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-30 | $180.0885 | $194.0727 | +7.77% | 78.95 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $184.4985 | $155.0579 | -15.96% | 66.36 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $155.0579 | $144.6022 | -6.74% | 61.88 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $144.6022 | $133.6111 | -7.60% | 57.18 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $128.5723 | $137.4006 | +6.87% | 61.10 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $126.6739 | $133.2287 | +5.17% | 64.27 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $132.3024 | $126.1940 | -4.62% | 61.30 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $136.1985 | $146.5108 | +7.57% | 65.94 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $135.5033 | $118.6620 | -12.43% | 57.74 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $118.6620 | $100.8811 | -14.98% | 49.09 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-11 | $97.6309 | $82.9768 | -15.01% | 41.72 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-18 | $82.9768 | $85.3436 | +2.85% | 42.91 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026-02-26 | $81.7582 | $88.0792 | +7.73% | 46.23 |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-07 | $82.0442 | $84.7320 | +3.28% | 47.75 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $84.7320 | $88.1355 | +4.02% | 49.66 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $90.1155 | $91.7964 | +1.87% | 50.59 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $86.5600 | $79.0495 | -8.68% | 46.20 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-16 | $82.5286 | $84.9603 | +2.95% | 47.56 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | $83.5092 | $86.9373 | +4.11% | 49.51 |
| 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-20 | $94.2851 | $84.1908 | -10.71% | 44.21 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $84.3119 | $81.9770 | -2.77% | 42.99 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $74.1390 | $64.9238 | -12.43% | 37.65 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $69.6488 | $67.6320 | -2.90% | 36.56 |
| 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-16 | $77.7889 | $77.2386 | -0.71% | 36.30 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $74.1431 | $73.4886 | -0.88% | 35.98 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $104.1141 | $101.9291 | -2.10% | 35.22 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.