Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Solana has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 5.19% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.9% to -8.2% | 1 |
| -8.2% to -5.4% | 0 |
| -5.4% to -2.7% | 0 |
| -2.7% to +0.1% | 0 |
| +0.1% to +2.8% | 1 |
| +2.8% to +5.6% | 2 |
| +5.6% to +8.3% | 0 |
| +8.3% to +11.1% | 1 |
| +11.1% to +13.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 5.29% | 3.48% | 66.7% | 10.80% | -5.71% |
| 3 days | 6 | 4.58% | 3.86% | 83.3% | 13.82% | -10.91% |
| 7 days | 6 | 5.19% | 3.70% | 66.7% | 21.39% | -15.01% |
| 14 days | 6 | 2.90% | 1.26% | 50.0% | 14.24% | -12.59% |
| 30 days | 6 | -5.90% | -0.46% | 33.3% | 28.10% | -10.43% |
| 90 days | 6 | -28.20% | -12.94% | 16.7% | 63.37% | -36.68% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -22.38 | $63.63 | -2.28% | +4.98% | +4.94% | +9.50% | +28.10% | +63.37% |
| 2026-02-04 | -23.25 | $97.63 | -5.71% | -10.91% | -15.01% | -12.59% | -8.89% | -13.88% |
| 2025-11-18 | -21.85 | $130.81 | +7.50% | +2.14% | +5.77% | -3.16% | -5.84% | -34.04% |
| 2025-11-05 | -20.12 | $155.20 | +4.68% | +4.18% | -0.35% | -9.39% | -10.43% | -32.74% |
| 2025-10-12 | -21.94 | $177.98 | +10.80% | +13.82% | +5.43% | +8.96% | -5.96% | -23.66% |
| 2025-09-26 | -21.89 | $193.41 | +5.90% | +8.96% | +21.39% | +14.24% | +0.27% | -36.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +21.39%
- 2025-11-18: +5.77%
- 2025-10-12: +5.43%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-04: -15.01%
- 2025-11-05: -0.35%
- 2026-06-06: +4.94%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.