Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Solana has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.56% and 10.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.4% to -8.9% | 3 |
| -8.9% to -6.5% | 1 |
| -6.5% to -4.1% | 1 |
| -4.1% to -1.7% | 1 |
| -1.7% to +0.8% | 1 |
| +0.8% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +5.6% | 1 |
| +5.6% to +8.1% | 0 |
| +8.1% to +10.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | -3.18% | -2.94% | 10.0% | 0.96% | -7.52% |
| 3 days | 10 | -4.67% | -3.29% | 30.0% | 10.49% | -11.37% |
| 7 days | 10 | -4.56% | -5.82% | 10.0% | 4.41% | -17.01% |
| 14 days | 10 | -4.29% | -4.10% | 40.0% | 13.97% | -25.74% |
| 30 days | 10 | -5.43% | -6.05% | 50.0% | 18.74% | -28.62% |
| 90 days | 9 | -31.35% | -16.55% | 22.2% | 45.89% | -43.87% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | -16.13 | $71.85 | -3.12% | -5.87% | +4.41% | +13.97% | +8.48% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -15.63 | $71.98 | -3.24% | +1.66% | -5.61% | +7.47% | +4.19% | +34.58% |
| 2026-06-05 | -20.27 | $68.81 | -7.52% | -3.47% | -2.90% | +1.22% | +18.74% | +45.89% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.91 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2025-12-08 | -18.39 | $131.96 | +0.96% | +3.34% | -1.87% | -4.50% | +6.72% | -36.63% |
| 2025-12-06 | -17.99 | $133.23 | -0.73% | -0.00% | -0.70% | -5.28% | +0.90% | -33.24% |
| 2025-11-12 | -21.58 | $154.66 | -0.90% | -10.13% | -9.08% | -10.17% | -11.76% | -43.87% |
| 2025-11-01 | -15.64 | $187.17 | -0.45% | -11.37% | -13.61% | -25.74% | -28.50% | -37.02% |
| 2025-10-15 | -15.67 | $202.58 | -4.25% | -10.09% | -8.32% | -4.09% | -28.62% | -31.35% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.74 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-23: +4.41%
- 2025-12-06: -0.70%
- 2025-12-08: -1.87%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2025-11-01: -13.61%
- 2025-11-12: -9.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.