Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Rain has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.09% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -1.2% to -0.2% | 1 |
| -0.2% to +0.9% | 1 |
| +0.9% to +1.9% | 2 |
| +1.9% to +3.0% | 0 |
| +3.0% to +4.0% | 0 |
| +4.0% to +5.0% | 0 |
| +5.0% to +6.1% | 1 |
| +6.1% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +8.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 1.35% | 2.56% | 83.3% | 8.16% | -1.21% |
| 3 days | 6 | 2.92% | 2.61% | 83.3% | 6.43% | -2.45% |
| 7 days | 6 | 0.09% | 2.96% | 50.0% | 12.80% | -3.24% |
| 14 days | 6 | 3.42% | 20.62% | 66.7% | 118.21% | -11.63% |
| 30 days | 6 | -3.44% | 20.18% | 50.0% | 142.51% | -14.52% |
| 90 days | 6 | 51.29% | 64.67% | 83.3% | 204.22% | -17.91% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $0.01 | -1.21% | -2.45% | -2.74% | +6.74% | +10.61% | +26.11% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $0.01 | +5.07% | +6.43% | -3.24% | -11.63% | -9.63% | +72.99% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $0.01 | +1.10% | +0.75% | +2.92% | -1.17% | -14.52% | +45.37% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $0.01 | +0.62% | +1.13% | -2.74% | +0.11% | -10.61% | +57.22% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $0.01 | +8.16% | +4.71% | +12.80% | +11.49% | +2.74% | -17.91% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $0.00 | +1.60% | +5.11% | +10.74% | +118.21% | +142.51% | +204.22% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +12.80%
- 2025-11-15: +10.74%
- 2026-03-09: +2.92%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-22: -3.24%
- 2026-03-02: -2.74%
- 2026-06-08: -2.74%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.