Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Rain has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 6.76% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.6% to +0.2% | 2 |
| +0.2% to +18.0% | 2 |
| +18.0% to +35.8% | 0 |
| +35.8% to +53.6% | 0 |
| +53.6% to +71.4% | 0 |
| +71.4% to +89.2% | 1 |
| +89.2% to +106.9% | 0 |
| +106.9% to +124.7% | 0 |
| +124.7% to +142.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | 1.60% | 1.96% | 57.1% | 8.66% | -2.77% |
| 3 days | 7 | 3.27% | 4.15% | 57.1% | 17.60% | -6.17% |
| 7 days | 6 | 6.76% | 4.74% | 66.7% | 18.18% | -8.23% |
| 14 days | 6 | 4.95% | 21.18% | 66.7% | 118.21% | -5.07% |
| 30 days | 6 | 15.80% | 38.13% | 66.7% | 142.51% | -17.55% |
| 90 days | 5 | 73.03% | 94.25% | 80.0% | 204.22% | -10.87% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -1.45 | $0.02 | -1.67% | -3.35% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-05 | -0.41 | $0.02 | -1.89% | -3.55% | -5.75% | -5.07% | -17.55% | — |
| 2026-05-07 | -2.24 | $0.01 | +3.51% | +3.27% | +4.27% | +3.44% | +81.02% | +73.03% |
| 2026-01-21 | -6.18 | $0.01 | +6.31% | +17.60% | +18.18% | +6.45% | +15.51% | -10.87% |
| 2025-11-30 | -2.95 | $0.01 | +8.66% | +16.14% | +9.25% | +8.43% | +16.09% | +36.02% |
| 2025-11-15 | -0.12 | $0.00 | +1.60% | +5.11% | +10.74% | +118.21% | +142.51% | +204.22% |
| 2025-10-18 | -1.85 | $0.00 | -2.77% | -6.17% | -8.23% | -4.35% | -8.82% | +168.83% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-21: +18.18%
- 2025-11-15: +10.74%
- 2025-11-30: +9.25%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-18: -8.23%
- 2026-07-05: -5.75%
- 2026-05-07: +4.27%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.