Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Rain has recorded 32 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.36% and 53.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.9% to -3.2% | 11 |
| -3.2% to +13.5% | 7 |
| +13.5% to +30.2% | 4 |
| +30.2% to +46.9% | 0 |
| +46.9% to +63.6% | 2 |
| +63.6% to +80.3% | 0 |
| +80.3% to +97.0% | 0 |
| +97.0% to +113.7% | 3 |
| +113.7% to +130.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 32 | -0.70% | 2.14% | 37.5% | 43.77% | -6.56% |
| 3 days | 32 | 0.30% | 7.32% | 53.1% | 121.98% | -12.66% |
| 7 days | 32 | 0.36% | 7.77% | 53.1% | 97.04% | -30.58% |
| 14 days | 32 | 3.20% | 8.41% | 68.8% | 108.21% | -24.33% |
| 30 days | 29 | 4.94% | 23.03% | 58.6% | 130.38% | -19.93% |
| 90 days | 27 | 64.74% | 64.16% | 74.1% | 206.34% | -28.74% |
Historical occurrences
32 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 5.95 | $0.01 | +22.26% | +16.58% | +12.50% | +9.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 8.61 | $0.02 | -6.56% | -1.33% | +17.65% | +10.18% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.71 | $0.01 | -0.72% | +0.75% | +25.52% | +20.00% | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 7.91 | $0.02 | -5.71% | -7.35% | -9.61% | -18.11% | -8.85% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 11.66 | $0.02 | -2.21% | -1.62% | -0.36% | -5.78% | -10.47% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 5.24 | $0.01 | +2.69% | +5.50% | +16.43% | +16.01% | +6.07% | +10.24% |
| 2026-05-26 | 6.02 | $0.01 | +43.77% | +77.26% | +67.96% | +64.98% | +97.21% | +74.22% |
| 2026-04-27 | 6.85 | $0.01 | -4.70% | +3.76% | -0.48% | +1.29% | +53.56% | +83.51% |
| 2026-04-08 | 15.90 | $0.01 | +4.30% | +8.05% | +1.95% | +2.17% | -1.81% | +98.89% |
| 2026-04-01 | 5.82 | $0.01 | -3.57% | -8.50% | -6.98% | -5.17% | -3.93% | +95.64% |
| 2026-03-23 | 5.07 | $0.01 | -0.67% | +2.64% | -5.79% | -24.33% | -11.62% | +64.74% |
| 2026-02-10 | 12.37 | $0.01 | -2.03% | -4.14% | -6.05% | -9.68% | -13.33% | -26.02% |
| 2026-02-07 | 8.16 | $0.01 | -1.79% | +8.79% | +5.74% | +1.31% | -6.41% | -21.44% |
| 2026-01-27 | 6.38 | $0.01 | -1.42% | -6.34% | -6.28% | +1.69% | -6.49% | -25.73% |
| 2026-01-22 | 6.31 | $0.01 | +12.20% | +10.90% | +10.72% | +3.55% | +6.78% | -13.84% |
| 2026-01-15 | 5.97 | $0.01 | +1.92% | -1.39% | -5.84% | +4.26% | +4.94% | -19.05% |
| 2026-01-11 | 7.24 | $0.01 | -0.85% | +0.07% | +4.57% | +10.73% | +14.49% | -9.03% |
| 2026-01-07 | 12.52 | $0.01 | -1.49% | -8.54% | -1.85% | -7.88% | -4.57% | -28.74% |
| 2025-12-27 | 9.96 | $0.01 | +6.36% | +3.68% | +4.62% | +9.01% | +23.72% | +8.44% |
| 2025-12-24 | 11.75 | $0.01 | +0.52% | -3.76% | +0.07% | +14.70% | +26.04% | +8.77% |
| 2025-12-15 | 5.62 | $0.01 | -0.52% | -4.72% | -3.53% | +2.86% | +14.37% | +14.67% |
| 2025-12-01 | 8.66 | $0.01 | +8.39% | +9.10% | +0.65% | +5.40% | +7.14% | +23.43% |
| 2025-11-25 | 118.74 | $0.01 | -2.91% | -9.94% | +1.45% | -4.00% | +0.75% | +17.14% |
| 2025-11-22 | 5.60 | $0.00 | -0.99% | +121.98% | +97.04% | +108.21% | +111.26% | +171.52% |
| 2025-11-10 | 6.30 | $0.00 | -2.56% | -4.78% | -5.00% | +5.07% | +121.21% | +167.86% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-22: +97.04%
- 2026-05-26: +67.96%
- 2025-09-15: +61.87%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-02: -30.58%
- 2026-07-22: -9.61%
- 2025-10-31: -7.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.