Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Rain has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.05% and 51.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.9% to -3.2% | 16 |
| -3.2% to +13.5% | 12 |
| +13.5% to +30.2% | 5 |
| +30.2% to +46.9% | 1 |
| +46.9% to +63.6% | 2 |
| +63.6% to +80.3% | 1 |
| +80.3% to +97.0% | 1 |
| +97.0% to +113.7% | 4 |
| +113.7% to +130.4% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 49 | -0.85% | 1.16% | 34.7% | 43.77% | -6.56% |
| 3 days | 49 | -0.23% | 5.49% | 46.9% | 121.98% | -12.66% |
| 7 days | 49 | 0.05% | 9.63% | 51.0% | 133.89% | -30.58% |
| 14 days | 49 | 2.86% | 10.18% | 69.4% | 137.28% | -24.33% |
| 30 days | 46 | 6.43% | 26.31% | 58.7% | 130.38% | -19.93% |
| 90 days | 41 | 64.74% | 62.16% | 75.6% | 206.34% | -28.74% |
Historical occurrences
49 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 5.95 | $0.01 | +22.26% | +16.58% | +12.50% | +9.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 8.61 | $0.02 | -6.56% | -1.33% | +17.65% | +10.18% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.71 | $0.01 | -0.72% | +0.75% | +25.52% | +20.00% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 4.99 | $0.01 | -1.54% | -2.57% | -2.55% | +0.64% | +30.91% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 7.91 | $0.02 | -5.71% | -7.35% | -9.61% | -18.11% | -8.85% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | 3.45 | $0.01 | -1.61% | +3.96% | -5.48% | -15.98% | -10.40% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.22 | $0.01 | -1.58% | -4.62% | +2.57% | -7.29% | -15.32% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 11.66 | $0.02 | -2.21% | -1.62% | -0.36% | -5.78% | -10.47% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 3.30 | $0.01 | -0.54% | -0.97% | +8.76% | +6.47% | -3.09% | -3.75% |
| 2026-06-16 | 5.24 | $0.01 | +2.69% | +5.50% | +16.43% | +16.01% | +6.07% | +10.24% |
| 2026-06-11 | 3.55 | $0.01 | +1.33% | -0.91% | +11.31% | +21.07% | +9.95% | +23.53% |
| 2026-06-08 | 4.16 | $0.01 | -1.21% | -2.45% | -2.74% | +6.74% | +10.61% | +26.11% |
| 2026-05-26 | 6.02 | $0.01 | +43.77% | +77.26% | +67.96% | +64.98% | +97.21% | +74.22% |
| 2026-05-24 | 3.13 | $0.01 | +0.33% | +52.93% | +89.63% | +70.54% | +111.71% | +98.99% |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.51 | $0.01 | +1.19% | +2.44% | +1.50% | +0.91% | +73.18% | +68.78% |
| 2026-04-29 | 3.82 | $0.01 | +4.87% | +5.25% | -1.23% | +1.07% | +91.35% | +84.15% |
| 2026-04-27 | 6.85 | $0.01 | -4.70% | +3.76% | -0.48% | +1.29% | +53.56% | +83.51% |
| 2026-04-11 | 4.34 | $0.01 | -4.38% | -0.77% | -7.09% | -7.93% | -6.90% | +74.94% |
| 2026-04-08 | 15.90 | $0.01 | +4.30% | +8.05% | +1.95% | +2.17% | -1.81% | +98.89% |
| 2026-04-01 | 5.82 | $0.01 | -3.57% | -8.50% | -6.98% | -5.17% | -3.93% | +95.64% |
| 2026-03-23 | 5.07 | $0.01 | -0.67% | +2.64% | -5.79% | -24.33% | -11.62% | +64.74% |
| 2026-02-10 | 12.37 | $0.01 | -2.03% | -4.14% | -6.05% | -9.68% | -13.33% | -26.02% |
| 2026-02-07 | 8.16 | $0.01 | -1.79% | +8.79% | +5.74% | +1.31% | -6.41% | -21.44% |
| 2026-02-05 | 3.41 | $0.01 | -5.89% | -0.03% | +8.27% | +4.07% | -2.12% | -20.97% |
| 2026-02-01 | 4.90 | $0.01 | -1.43% | -8.79% | -5.71% | -0.58% | -7.05% | -20.57% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-18: +133.89%
- 2025-11-22: +97.04%
- 2026-05-24: +89.63%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-02: -30.58%
- 2026-07-22: -9.61%
- 2025-10-31: -7.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.