Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Rain has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.51% and 30.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.6% to -25.0% | 1 |
| -25.0% to -19.5% | 1 |
| -19.5% to -13.9% | 0 |
| -13.9% to -8.4% | 0 |
| -8.4% to -2.8% | 5 |
| -2.8% to +2.7% | 5 |
| +2.7% to +8.3% | 0 |
| +8.3% to +13.8% | 0 |
| +13.8% to +19.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | -1.49% | 0.67% | 30.8% | 25.39% | -6.68% |
| 3 days | 13 | -3.76% | -1.80% | 30.8% | 25.11% | -14.51% |
| 7 days | 13 | -3.51% | -4.60% | 30.8% | 19.37% | -30.58% |
| 14 days | 13 | -6.30% | -5.14% | 30.8% | 14.70% | -28.36% |
| 30 days | 12 | -4.31% | 6.32% | 33.3% | 98.18% | -24.75% |
| 90 days | 11 | 28.39% | 50.36% | 72.7% | 186.79% | -28.74% |
Historical occurrences
13 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 22.26 | $0.02 | -3.50% | -2.47% | -6.97% | -10.84% | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 11.66 | $0.02 | -2.21% | -1.62% | -0.36% | -5.78% | -10.47% | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 43.77 | $0.01 | +25.39% | +25.11% | +19.37% | +9.41% | +36.19% | +28.39% |
| 2026-04-08 | 15.90 | $0.01 | +4.30% | +8.05% | +1.95% | +2.17% | -1.81% | +98.89% |
| 2026-02-10 | 12.37 | $0.01 | -2.03% | -4.14% | -6.05% | -9.68% | -13.33% | -26.02% |
| 2026-01-23 | 12.20 | $0.01 | -1.41% | -5.53% | -5.87% | -13.15% | -6.37% | -23.74% |
| 2026-01-07 | 12.52 | $0.01 | -1.49% | -8.54% | -1.85% | -7.88% | -4.57% | -28.74% |
| 2025-12-24 | 11.75 | $0.01 | +0.52% | -3.76% | +0.07% | +14.70% | +26.04% | +8.77% |
| 2025-11-25 | 118.74 | $0.01 | -2.91% | -9.94% | +1.45% | -4.00% | +0.75% | +17.14% |
| 2025-10-31 | 12.77 | $0.00 | -0.25% | +1.92% | -7.40% | -6.30% | +98.18% | +186.79% |
| 2025-10-13 | 18.23 | $0.00 | -6.68% | -14.51% | -20.08% | -28.36% | -24.75% | +104.09% |
| 2025-10-02 | 14.66 | $0.00 | -3.60% | -12.66% | -30.58% | -12.78% | -19.93% | +85.20% |
| 2025-09-20 | 51.96 | $0.00 | +2.53% | +4.66% | -3.51% | +5.69% | -4.06% | +103.22% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-27: +19.37%
- 2026-04-08: +1.95%
- 2025-11-25: +1.45%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-02: -30.58%
- 2025-10-13: -20.08%
- 2025-10-31: -7.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.